Hollywood Sports - Arkansas vs Texas Tech

25* CBB SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR!

Handicapper

Hollywood Sports

League

NCAAB

Competition

Arkansas vs Texas Tech

Release Date

03/27/2025 04:39 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 10:20 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Texas Tech -5.5 (-110) (DraftKings)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

At 10:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (27-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-64 victory against Drake as a 7.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Arkansas (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 75-66 upset victory against St. John’s as a 7-point underdog on Saturday in their second-round game of the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks benefited from a Red Storm team that could not hit the side of the barn Saturday afternoon as they only made 28.0% of their shots from the field. That was the best defensive effort for them all season — but it may be more of a statement about that Rick Pitino team and their lack of scoring options. Arkansas has scored two straight upset victories in this tournament after upsetting Kansas in their opening-round game. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Head coach John Calipari expects to get Adou Thiero back from injury tonight — but I still suspect their bubble gets burst tonight. I appreciate that his team has played better lately after enduring injuries for much of the year — but I still don’t like the profile of this team since they don't generate additional possessions and their shot volume is low. They rank 231st in the nation by pulling down 28.1% of their missed shots — and they rank 150th by forcing turnovers in only 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions. If their shots are not falling, then they lack a reliable Plan B — especially if their opponent is not missing their shots. It is telling that the Razorbacks have a 7-11 record against teams in the top 40 — but a 15-2 record against their remaining opponents. They have beaten two Sweet 16 teams in Michigan and Kentucky — but they have lost to six teams who made the Sweet 16 with setbacks against Ole Miss twice, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. On the road, they surrender +2.5 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Their perimeter defense is of concern in those games with their opponents making 34.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 169th in the nation. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road against teams outside the SEC. Texas Tech may get 3-point shooter Chance McMillian back tonight who is listed as questionable with his upper body injury. I am assuming he does not play and will be pleasantly surprised if he can take the court for the first time in this tournament for head coach Grant McCasland. The Red Raiders rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics — and since 2021, all but one National Champion ranked in his top 21 in offense and top 44 in defense. Texas Tech is one of 12 teams remaining in the field that meet those baseline standards — and the Razorbacks' offense which ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency keeps them out of that group. McCasland’s team is led by floor-spacing big man J.T. Toppin and pass-first point guard Elijah Hawkins. Another power rankings system other than Pomeroy’s puts them seventh in the nation — and they are ninth in the country in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. For comparison's sake, Arkansas ranks 41st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those numbers. They rank third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +5.2 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Red Raiders are a great road team because they generate extra scoring possessions and protect the basketball. They rank 59th in the nation by pulling down 33.9% of their missed shots. They rank 24th by only turning the ball over in just 14.5% of their possessions. They are also proficient with their 3-point shooting. Texas Tech ranks 31st in the nation by making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 58th by taking 44.9% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Raiders have beaten Houston, BYU, and Arizona who all made the Sweet 16 — and they only have three losses against Sweet 16 teams with two losses to Arizona and a setback to Houston. The Razorbacks make 46.4% of their shots and hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on the road this season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (630) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.