ASA, Inc. - BYU vs Alabama

ASA Sweet 16 NCAA Game of the Year! 78% RUN!

Handicapper

ASA, Inc.

League

NCAAB

Competition

BYU vs Alabama

Release Date

03/27/2025 02:05 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 07:09 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Byu +5.5 (-110) (DraftKings)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.