Al McMordie - Arizona vs Duke

BIG AL's SWEET 16 GAME OF YEAR (523-389 RUN)!

Handicapper

Al McMordie

League

NCAAB

Competition

Arizona vs Duke

Release Date

03/26/2025 07:47 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 10:03 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Arizona +9.5 (-110) (BetMGM)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

At 9:35 pm, on Thursday, in the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Duke. The Blue Devils have been the 3rd best team relative to the point spread in this tourney, as they've covered the spread by an average of 10.75 ppg (Arkansas (+13.75) and Ole Miss (+13.5) rank as #1 and #2, respectively). This fact, coupled with the Blue Devils' regular season success (it's 24-12 ATS on the season, and has covered by an average of 4.51 ppg), has led to a slightly-inflated point spread for today's game, based on my numbers. I like the Wildcats dressed up as a revenge-minded underdog. These two teams met in Tucson earlier this season, and the Blue Devils emerged victorious, 69-55, as a 1.5-point road underdog. Arizona, however, is 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS its last 16 games when playing with revenge. And Duke is a dreadful 1-6 ATS its last seven (and 7-20-1 ATS its last 28) when playing a revenge-minded foe Duke defeated on the road earlier in the season, provided Duke wasn't favored by 15+ points in the current game. Grab the points with the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.