Nelly's Sports - Arizona vs Duke

Nelly's Thursday Sweet 16 Late Night Winner

Handicapper

Nelly's Sports

League

NCAAB

Competition

Arizona vs Duke

Release Date

03/25/2025 08:10 PM

Event Date

03/27/2025 10:03 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Arizona +9.5 (-110) (BetMGM)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

Arizona lost 69-55 against Duke in Tucson in November, though that final score was the largest lead of the game for the Blue Devils. Arizona shot just 26 percent from 3-point range but the biggest disparity was on the boards with a 43-30 edge in rebounds for Duke. That was a breakout game for Cooper Flagg as Duke had lost its first big non-conference test vs. Kentucky. In the NCAA Tournament so far, Arizona hasn’t looked like a team that is going to be significantly outrebounded, beating Arkon 43-22 and Oregon 44-37 on the glass. The close win over Oregon featured a double-digit lead at several points in the second half and Arizona closed that game on an 83-64 run after a terrible first five minutes. Arizona didn’t accomplish much in the non-conference season but in Big XII play the Wildcats have wins over Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas while both losses against Houston came by slim margins. Duke blasting Baylor from the Big XII 89-66 in the Round of 32 has boosted this spread facing another Big XII team but Duke shot 55 percent from 3-point range and was +13 in free throw attempts in that game. Baylor had an 18-3 edge in offensive rebounds though that was in part due to Duke rarely missing in a historically great shooting performance, making 29 of 45 shots for an absurd over 64% performance. Baylor was not as strong defensively as many Scott Drew teams have been in the past, ranking 240th nationally in effective field goal rate against, and 304th in 3-point defense, Arizona is much stronger on both counts and was one of the best Big XII defenses inside the arc. Since losing to Duke in November, Arizona is 22-10 but with only two losses by more than eight points. Duke has just one top 25 caliber win since a narrow win over Auburn in early December as Duke played one of the weakest possible ACC schedules in a down year for the conference with the Blue Devils the only ACC team that made it past the Round of 64. Duke was a two-point underdog when these teams met in November and Arizona won easily in the last NCAA Tournament meeting between these programs while priced as a similar +9.5-point underdog in the 2011 Sweet 16. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.