25* CBB ROUND OF 64 GAME OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Grand Canyon vs Maryland
- Release Date
- 03/21/2025 03:43 PM
- Event Date
- 03/21/2025 04:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Maryland -10.5 (-105)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 4:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (25-8) had won four games in a row before their 81-80 upset loss to Michigan as a 4-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. Grand Canyon (26-7) has won three games in a row after their 89-82 victory as a 4.5-point favorite in the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: Maryland is disappointed in not winning the Big Ten tournament — but this is still a team poised to make a deep run in the Big Dance. The “Crab Five” has one of the best starting units in the country. It starts with their frontline of Derik Queen and Julian Reese who are two bruisers at 6’10 and 6’9 and both around 250 pounds. Queen has become a double-double machine after pulling off at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in eight of his last ten games. These two big men are flanked by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and SeltonMiguel who combined to nail 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc in the final ten games of the regular season. Maryland allowed Michigan to make 47% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. But the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games under head coach Kevin Willard after losing to a fellow Big Ten rival. Maryland is a balanced team that does many things well that should keep them protected from getting upset in these early rounds. They rank 27th in the nation by nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They are also above average by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They protect the basketball as well by turning the ball over just 14.5% of the time which ranks 22nd in the nation. On defense, the Terrapins rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks 37th. They are also strong at defending the perimeter by ranking 25th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from behind the arc. They also have a hidden strength regarding when they take shots and when their opponents take shots. Generally, teams that are quicker to launch a shot attempt are taking better quality shots since those opportunities become more sparse as the shot clock continues. Maryland ranks 29th in the nation by averaging 16.1 seconds per shot — and their opponents average 18.0 seconds per shot attempt which is the 262nd slowest mark in the nation. On the road, the Terrapins improve their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking from 25th overall to 14th best in the nation — they are scoring +5.9 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. Their 37.6% shooting from behind the arc on the road ranks 17th. Maryland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road, They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set at 150s. Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Head coach Bryce Drew’s team upset Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64 last season but his club this year does not have as impressive a profile — and the Terrapins are much less vulnerable than that Gaels team was. The Antelopes do generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and attempting to force turnovers — but Maryland will make it tough to accomplish those tasks. But a big weakness of this Grand Canyon team is that they rank 295th on the road by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions — and that is a significant problem against the Terrapins. They also only make 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc on the road which ranks 331st in the nation. The Antelopes score -3.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when on the road. They also rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road which may be fine for the WAC but it is another vulnerability against an opponent like Maryland. The Terrapins hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — and Grand Canyon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. The Antelopes have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games outside the WAC.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has covered the point spread in 20 of their 31 games under Willard when laying double-digits including in nine of those 13 occasions this season. 25* CBB Round of 64 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Maryland Terrapins (808) minus the points versus the Grand Canyon Antelopes (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.
