TDG’s NFC GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Time
- 01/19/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Rams +7 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NFC Game of the Year is on the Los Angeles Rams plus the points versus Philadelphia at 3 pm et.
The oddsmakers installed the Philadelphia Eagles as a six-point favorite last week, and the market has pushed them up to a seven-point favorite this morning. Perhaps this is a response to the latest weather forecasts which call for two to four inches of snow. Bettors may be assuming that this helps the home team since they are more accustomed to playing in weather like this. However, the conditions may contribute to keeping this game within one scoring possession and pushing at +7 presents great value now. If Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts was close to 100%, then the snow would not be as much of a concern for their offense. In his return from the concussion protocol last week, Hurts completed 13 of 21 passes for only 131 yards. He averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. He may be still dealing with the lingering effects of the concussion. This compounds some lingering trends that indicate the Eagles are not as comfortable moving the ball in the air. After averaging 227 passing yards per game last year, Hurts is only averaging 194 passing yards per game this season. He has only thrown for more than 179 yards once in his last five games which he completed. He does not seem to be on the same page with wide receiver A.J. Brown. With the passing game impacted by the snow and wind gusts over 20 miles per hour, it may be more difficult to move the ball in the air. These conditions will make it easier for the Rams to stack the box to slow down running back Saquon Barkley. The Eagles only converted two of their eleven third downs last week. They gained just 290 yards. The injury to linebacker Nakobe Dean is also important since he had become defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s favorite player to rush the quarterback from blitzes.
The Los Angeles Rams moved to 9-3 this season with a healthy Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp with their 27-9 upset victory in Glendale, Arizona, against Minnesota last week. After a 1-4 start to the season, the Rams have since posted a 9-5 record. They held the Vikings to 269 yards of offense. We have been on Los Angeles several times in the second half of the season and observed how good their young defense has become. The Rams are a warm weather team traveling east into cold weather, yet they did this once already in their 19-9 win in New York against the Jets last month. Matthew Stafford completed 14 of 19 passes in those conditions yet for only 110 yards. Head coach Sean McVay called a conservative game plan that relied on their running game, yet it worked. Stafford led the Rams to a 13-0 comeback in the fourth quarter to win that game. That recent experience will help this afternoon. Bettors should not underestimate the importance of having a proven savvy veteran at quarterback in the postseason. Former Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks have led their teams to a 15-5 mark against the spread in those last twenty games in the playoffs. Los Angeles is playing with one day less of rest, yet McVay’s Rams have covered the point spread in sixteen of their twenty games when playing with short rest. When these two teams met in November, the Eagles ran the ball 45 times for 314 yards in a 37-20 victory. Philadelphia averages 4.9 yards per carry, yet Los Angeles has covered the point spread in six straight games on the road against opponents who average 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Rams have covered the point spread in eleven of their last sixteen games against winning teams, and they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games in January. Play the Los Angeles Rams plus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
