TOM'S 4* NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Time
- 01/19/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #392 PHILADELPHIA (-) over LA Rams at 3 PM EST
Off last week's upset win over the Vikings in the NFL Wild Card Round and on a blistering 6-1 SU and ATS run in their last seven games, the Rams will get a quick reality check here. Philadelphia enters this postseason battle on a sizzling 3-0 SU and ATS run and the Green Birds will have no trouble extending the margin against this emotionally spent Los Angeles squad.
A quick peek at the History Book shows that the Eagles have dominated this series inking a strong 16-6 SU and 16-4-2 ATS record in the last 22 meetings and that includes an easy 37-20 win and cover at LA back on November 24th. Also, in their own backyard battling an opponent that arrives with confidence off a SU and ATS victory, the Green Birds own a profitable 21-8 SU and 21-7-1 ATS mark in their last 29 games including an elite 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS provided head coach Nick Sirianni and his crew slip in with momentum off a straight up win. Finally, as a home favorite entering with momentum off two or more straight up wins, Philadelphia holds a strong 20-2 SU and 15-6-1 ATS tally including a nearly perfect 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS provided they are priced as a favorite of -7 or less.
This is a horrible wagering situation for the visitors. Since 1981, NFL road teams that check in off a straight up underdog win in the playoffs own a woeful 30-86 SU and 50-66 ATS record. If our "play against" side is priced as a pup of +7.5 or less, this angle falls to a miserable 22-52 SU and 28-46 ATS including a shocking 10-32 SU and 12-30 ATS provided they are rolling with revenge of any kind. With those three parameters live and the team we are fading lined up against a foe that is not off blowout loss of seven points or more, this angle drops to a dismal 7-28 SU and ATS. The Rams apply to all four of those negative wagering situations.
Defensively, the Eagles have been a force allowing a grand total of 30 points in their last three games and their tenacious stop unit will be the key to this pointspread victory. Take Philadelphia. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
