TDG’s AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
- Time
- 01/19/2025 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Over 51 (-113)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* AFC Total of the Year is with the Baltimore/Buffalo over at 6:30 pm et.
These two AFC teams played in late September in Baltimore in a game that demonstrated just how explosive the pairing of Derrick Henry was going to be with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens gained 427 yards of offense in that game including 271 yards on the ground in a 35-10 victory. Henry ran the ball 24 times for 199 yards. He ran for eight first downs and averaged over six yards per carry. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry after contact. The weather is going to be cold, yet it will probably be favorable for offenses, especially in the rushing attacks. The wind is minimal, so the passing game and field goal attempts should not be impacted. There is a slight chance of snow. If there is snow and the field gets slick, that helps runners like Henry and Jackson since defenders have to react quickly. Henry ran 26 times for 186 yards and two touchdowns in Baltimore’s 28-14 victory against Pittsburgh last week. The Ravens are averaging 30.3 points per game and 427 yards per game, and while their scoring average drops a little to 29.6 points per game on the road, their yardage average increases to 435 yards per game. Baltimore has played four of their last five games over the number when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 49.5 or higher. They have played five of their last six games over the total when they are playing on the road in games when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to seven points.
Buffalo only had 236 yards in that earlier game against the Ravens in a game that got out of hand early on. The Bills had yet to trade for wide receiver Amari Cooper at the point of the season. In this rematch, Buffalo will play better on offense and score more points. They won for the fourth time in their last five games in a 31-7 victory against Denver last week. It was the thirteenth time this season that they scored 30 or more points. They are averaging 30.9 points per game, and in their nine games at home, they are averaging 33.9 points per game. Josh Allen and his teammates love playing in weather they this. They were having lots of fun scoring 40 points against the New York Jets at the end of December. Yet the Bills' run defense is still a problem. Opposing rushers average 4.5 yards per carry this season, and opposing rushers average 4.8 yards per carry when playing in Buffalo. The Bills have played ten of their last fourteen games over the number at home against conference opponents. They have played four of their last five games over the number when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 49.5 or higher. Baltimore has played four of their last five games over the total against opponents who give up 4.5 or more yards per carry. They have played five of their last seven games over the total against opponents who average 24 or more points per game. Allen leads an offense that averages 7.6 yards per attempt. The Ravens have played eight of their last ten games over the number against opponents who average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the passing game. Baltimore has scored 28 or more points in five straight games and in thirteen of their last seventeen games after their 0-2 start to the season. In defeating Kansas City and Detroit this season, Buffalo scored 30 and 48 points. The loser of this game will begin a bitter offseason after failing to reach the AFC championship game. Expect a shootout. Play the over.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
