Nelly's Sports - Illinois vs Michigan State

Nelly’s Early B1G Spotlight Winner 65% RUN

Handicapper
Nelly's Sports
League
NCAAB
Competition
Illinois vs Michigan State
Time
01/19/2025 12:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Michigan State -4 (-110) (BetOnline)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
Illinois blasted Indiana on the road Tuesday putting up 94 points. The Illini are 5-2 in the Big Ten including three road wins but there isn’t significant weight in the non-conference resume, posting a narrow neutral site win over Missouri for the only top 50 win, while losing in tough tests vs. Alabama and Tennessee. Playing at a fast pace, Illinois has good numbers on both sides of the ball, but the conference path so far has been favorable. That will change today heading to East Lansing. Michigan State is the only Big Ten team without a conference loss so far and that includes three road wins. The Spartans haven’t yet faced any of the top tier teams but in the 6-0 start Michigan State ranks as the #1 offense and #1 defense in the Big Ten. Michigan State has allowed below 27 percent on 3-point shooting in conference play while being the #1 free throw shooting team as well. Michigan State beat Illinois at home 88-80 last February to snap a four-game slide in this series and the Spartans are 11-6 ATS this season while 9-0 S/U at home. Michigan State didn’t shoot well from 3-point range in the non-conference season, but that percentage has climbed considerably in the Big Ten season, shooting 3.5 percent better than Illinois beyond the arc. Illinois ranks as just the sixth best offense in the Big Ten and free throw success and frequency is a big disparity between these teams and in a Sunday home game the Spartans can expect to have a slight edge at the line. Michigan State can be at risk for turnovers, but Illinois is the third worst turnover creating defense in the Big Ten. Michigan State still has a lot to prove with the 6-0 Big Ten start somewhat hollow, but this is a better matchup for the Spartans than the close rankings and valuations suggest. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.

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