- Analysis
- At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-7 win against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite in the wildcard playoff round last Sunday. Baltimore (13-5) has won five games in a row after their 28-14 win against Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Because this is a heavyweight fight, I went back to my original notes from my preseason deep-dives on both teams. The conventional wisdom was this was a rebuilding year for Buffalo — but I was bullish on them. As someone who does not think highly of the Establish the Run Mockery Crew, I applauded head coach Sean McDermott’s new stubbornness to lean on his ground game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midseason last year. The complaint about his defense is that they underachieve in the postseason — so fewer snaps during the regular season could have this unit fresher for playoff football. Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons — and this sentiment was validated by him throwing only six picks so far this season which is the lowest of his career. I thought a passing attack that relies on free agent wideout Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, slot receiver Khalil Shakir, the two-headed monster at tight end with Dalton Kinkaid and Dawson Knox (and 12 personnel), and James Cook catching balls out of the backfield create some intriguing set of options for the passing attack in the post-Diggs world — and after they acquired Amari Cooper from Cleveland midseason, the wide receiver room is more than fine. Allen threw 96 fewer passes in the regular season compared to last year — but he raised his Yards-Per-Attempt mark from 7.4 to 7.7 which is the second-highest clip in his career. Buffalo led the NFL in the regular season with the fewest giveaways and the fewest sacks allowed — exactly what McDermott was hoping to achieve with his stylistic changes. Getting this game at home at Highmark Stadium is huge — and they will feel very comfortable with the temperatures dropping into the teens with a chance of snow flurries. The Bills were 9-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of +17.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 33.9 PPG at home — and their defense really tightens up on their home field where they are holding their guests to just 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.4 PPG. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a winning record. Against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or higher, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG — and that scoring average rises to 34.2 PPG if they are playing at home. Buffalo led the NFL by scoring at least 30 points in 13 games in the regular season. They are a confident team that beat both number-one seeds, Kansas City and Detroit, earlier in the year. And I think they are a step or two closer to winning a Super Bowl than the Ravens are. In the last three seasons, they have lost two coin-flip games with the Chiefs — the epic overtime game with the Patrick Mahomes 13-second drive and then a heartbreaking 27-24 loss at home last year. If the Bills win those games, they may have won both Super Bowls. In his 11 playoff games in his career, Allen has a 103.2 Passer Rating — he has completed 65.3% of his passes with 28 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. And while the Ravens only give up 20.8 PPG this season, Allen has a 27-12-1 ATS in his 40 games in his career against teams who are not allowing more than 21.0 PPG. Lamar Jackson has lost four of his seven starts in the postseason — and all those victories were in their opening game in the playoffs against Tennessee in 2021, Houston last year, and then against the Steelers last week. Their 17-10 loss at home against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game was the first time in the Jackson era that they lost to the eventual Super Bowl winner. That game was not as close as the final score appeared. The game plan was a mess with the Ravens’ running backs only carrying the ball eight times. Jackson struggled in the passing game with the goal seeming to prove that he could win playoff games with his arm. In his seven career playoffs starts, he is completing only 59.3% of his passes with 11 touchdowns but nine giveaways and an 81.2 Passer Rating. He has admitted that he gets too amped up in these big playoff games which makes him a work in progress — and that is a net disadvantage versus where Allen is right now. Baltimore signed running back Derrick Henry in the offseason to address those mistakes against Kansas City — and they will feed Henry tonight. But the Bills' run defense is underrated — they rank sixth in the league in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt. Buffalo also held their last three opponents to 271.3 total YPG and 14.7 PPG. Jackson is not likely to have wide receiver Zay Flowers tonight with him being downgraded to doubtful with his knee injury. The Bills defense has struggled against teams like Detroit and the LA Rams with multiple wide receiver threats — so this injury really hurts. Maybe the presence of Henry is the game-changer that solves Jackson’s postseason struggles — but this remains an unknown which really worries me when they are now laying the points. The Ravens have lost three of their last four games on the road against teams winning 75% or more of their games. They played their last two games at home — but they have lost three of their last four games on the road after a two-game home stand. They have lost five of their last seven games in January. And while I know their defense has been night and day after they added Dean Pees as a senior analyst and then moved Kyle Hamilton to free safety, their number one ranking in Opponent EPA allowed since Week 11 was against a schedule that included Pittsburgh (twice), the LA Chargers, Houston, Cleveland, and the New York Giants — not exactly the best offenses in the league. In the 46 games the Bills have played under McDermott when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Buffalo has covered the point spread 29 times including five of their last seven.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played early on the season on September 29th for Sunday Night Football in a game the Ravens got off to a fast start and dominated in a 35-10 victory as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills were down three defensive starters in that game with defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Matt Milano, and nickelback Taron Johnson all out for that game. Having all three players in this rematch will help slow down Henry. Allen had five of his passes dropped in that game as well — and it was before the team traded for Cooper to give the offense a true X receiver. Buffalo has won nine of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (394) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.
