ASA, Inc. - TCU vs Baylor

ASA Big 12 CBB Game of the Week! Off 4-0 DAY!

Handicapper
ASA, Inc.
League
NCAAB
Competition
TCU vs Baylor
Time
01/19/2025 05:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Baylor -12 (-125) (BetOnline)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

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