- Analysis
- Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 934-741-38 to the Under (55.8%), including 442-310-16 UNDER (58.8%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -1.5 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 462-366-23 to the Under (55.8%) from Week 5 forward. Since 2000, NFL playoff road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt are 45-27 to the Under (62.5%), including 16-6 UNDER (72.7%) since 2018, going under by an average of -3.9 points per game. Since 1989, NFL playoff teams with excellent red zone conversion rates (greater than 63%) are 41-24 to the Under (63.1%), including 24-9 UNDER (72.7%) since 2017, going under by an average of -5.4 points per game.
Since 1989, NFL playoff teams averaging 3 or more sacks per game are 53-39-1 to the Under (57.6%), including 21-13-1 UNDER (61.8%) since 2018. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 234-180-7 to the Under (56.5%), including 82-57-3 to the Under (59%) when favored by less than seven points since 2022. Since 2015, non-divisional road favorites coming off a SU and ATS win in games with totals of greater than 40 points are 132-108-4 to the Under (55%), including 42-29-1 UNDER (59.2%) since 2022. Since 2014, NFL playoff home underdogs are 11-5 to the Under (68.8%). Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh is 17-5 to the Under (77.3%) in January affairs since 2012.
Baltimore’s offense had a 46% rush success rate (2nd-best) during the regular season behind Derrick Henry, who finished with 562 rushing yards over expectation. However, the Bills’ defense ranks eighth in EPA per play against designed runs and will be better defending passes to opposing running backs with the return of linebacker Matt Milano, who missed thirteen games this season. In Baltimore’s four postseason defeats, quarterback Lamar Jackson has averaged just 10.5 points, failing to eclipse the 20-point mark. Buffalo’s attack boasts a 45% rush success rate (5th) but will be contained by a stout Ravens’ stop unit that held teams to a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks. Baltimore’s defense ranked first (minus-0.15) in EPA allowed per opponent dropback in Weeks 11-18 after head coach John Harbaugh benched safeties Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson and employed Kyle Hamilton as a safety on 69.3% of his snaps.
Since 2007, NFL playoff games with point spreads between -3 and +3 are 34-24 to the Under (58.2%). Since 2014, NFL teams coming off a game in which they had 47 or more rushing attempts are 23-11-1 to the Under (67.6%). The Ravens are 92-50-2 to the Under (64.8%) since 1989 on the road following a game in which they had 17:90 or more minutes of possession time, including 27-13-1 UNDER (67.5%) since 2018, going under by an average of -3.7 points per game. Since 2011, NFL playoff home teams not favored by double digits are 19-12 to the Under (61.3%), provided they are averaging 30 or more points per game, including 12-5 UNDER (70.6%) since 2018, going under by an average of -6.0 points per game. NFL games with totals of 50 or more points are 39-23-1 to the Under (62.9%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Finally, since 1999, the under is 10-2 (83.3%) in this series Take the Under and invest with confidence.
