Nelly's NFL Sunday Playoff Best Bet 65% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Time
- 01/19/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Draw
- Analysis
- Credit the Rams for coming to play in Monday’s game in Arizona even with the challenges for the team with the Southern California fires. The Rams had only 292 yards and 16 first downs in that game as Minnesota mistakes were the biggest factors with two turnovers late in the second quarter leading to 14 points and a massive swing in the outcome probability. The Rams were just a 10-7 regular season team and Los Angeles didn’t win a road game vs. a playoff team all season long. The regular season loss hosting the Eagles in late November was a blowout in the box score by a far greater margin than the 37-20 final score. There is not a major statistical category in which the Rams can claim an advantage over the Eagles and Philadelphia went 5-0 in games vs. top 10 teams this season. The Eagles had a fluke loss to Atlanta in Week 2 with a dropped pass from Saquon Barkley that would have sealed the game. The Week 16 loss in Washington also featured Jalen Hurts injured early in the game and was a game the Eagles still led in the final seconds as this team wasn’t far from being 16-1 and the clear Super Bowl favorite. Instead, the Eagles are flying under the radar next to the trio of top AFC threats and the popular Lions team that would be a great story in the media. Philadelphia is one of the top rushing teams in the league going against a very mediocre Rams run defense. The Rams had a negative scoring differential in the regular season and were 179 points worse than the Eagles in scoring differential, by far the biggest gap between two teams so far this postseason. Barkley dominated the first meeting with 9.8 yards per carry on 255 yards and the strong run defense performance last week for the Rams was built on the game state, with Minnesota trailing the entire game. The Eagles didn’t have huge numbers last week with the defense leading the way but with another week of rest for Hurts, this proven group should be in top form for a favorable matchup with a price below a touchdown at home. The Eagles are 26-10 S/U and 20-15-1 ATS at home for Nick Siriani including eight straight wins with the past six all by at least six points. Sean McVay has great career results and deserves respect, but his 7-4 career playoff record (6-5 ATS) includes a 2-2 S/U mark in his last four road tests with his defense allowing at least 20 points in every career road playoff game. The disadvantage of playing on Monday for a short week for a second straight road game may be felt and the Rams had just 19 points and 242 yards of offense in their only cold weather game this season. The weather could be a significant factor with snow possible and temperatures in the 30s which could greatly favor the team with a mobile quarterback that averages 75 more rushing yards per game.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
