Fargo's NFL Sunday Star Attraction (+$19,330)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
- Time
- 01/19/2025 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-118)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the game of the weekend and the home field will be the difference. We cashed easily with Buffalo last week even after they fell behind 7-0 in the first few minutes of the game. The Bills did have the loss in Los Angeles against the Rams which snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Bills followed that up with three wins to close the season with the starters. This is the most balanced team in football as they became the first team in NFL history with 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns, the latter seeing 13 different players catch a touchdown pass. They finished one spot below Baltimore in both Offensive and Defensive EPA but we still feel this is the better of the two teams, not based just on the seeding but based on the makeup of this roster from top to bottom. It is the playoffs so we cannot bank on any revenge but the Bills will have that extra step after getting blasted in Baltimore 35-10 in Week Four in what was a horrible spot playing on short rest in their third straight primetime game. Baltimore is playing at a peak level now as it has won and covered five straight games with all of the victories by at least two touchdowns but it was expected according to the markets as the Ravens were favored by at least 6.5 points in all of those games. But we do not think they should be laying points here although it is close to a pickem as it is based on public perception with everyone talking about them and Buffalo has not been a home underdog since the final week of the 2020 season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again leading an offense that is No. 1 in Offensive EPA. The Ravens have averaged 29.6 ppg on the road against teams allowing 22.4 ppg but the Bills are giving up just 16.4 ppg at home and the loss of Zay Flowers is huge for the Ravens. Turnovers are huge in these swing games and Buffalo has the situational edge as we play against road teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 67-26 (72 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +5.9 ppg. 10* (394) Buffalo Bills
