Fargo's Divisional Game of the Year (11-4-1)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Time
- 01/19/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-121)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Divisional Game of the Year. There are two teams remaining in the postseason that are ranked in the top ten on both Offensive and Defensive EPA, Detroit and Philadelphia, with both tied at No. 5 for best in Net EPA. The Eagles had the one hiccup against Washington where they lost 36-33 on a last second touchdown and they have now won 13 of 14 games since a 2-2 start and the loss to Tampa Bay was the only one of the three that was not decided in the final half minute. This team is built to win right now and while we played against them last week, they were focused enough to win that game even if the Packers did not get hit with the numerous injuries they incurred throughout the game. We won with the Rams over Minnesota on Monday with that being just as much of a play fading the overrated Vikings as it was playing on the Rams. Los Angeles was displaced to Arizona for the few days leading up to that game and it was a moment where they felt a surreal situation according to a few of the players and the game was their focus. Now having to go back to Los Angeles to pack up again, the reality of the tragic situation has set in and while real life and football are usually separated, this is a tough one. The Rams now have to make the long trip out east in a very tough spot. This game sets up similarly for the Rams as it did with Houston and we are going against the disadvantage here. Of the top ten defenses in the NFL in EPA, eight made the playoffs and four of the top five are gone (Denver, Minnesota, Green Bay and Los Angeles Chargers) so what does that tell us? A great defense needs an above average offense to go with it and of those four losing teams, only Green Bay was inside the top 12 and this week, six of the eight teams are No. 9 or better in Offensive EPA with the Texans and Rams being the two exceptions. That does not mean they do not have a chance but it is not in their favor having to go on the road. While the game was moved to Arizona, the Rams were still listed as the home underdog and teams that won as home underdogs in the Wild Card round and are now on the road have gone 2-15 ATS. 10* (392) Philadelphia Eagles
