CFB INDIANA-NOTRE DAME ABC-TV SPECIAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Indiana vs Notre Dame
- Time
- 12/20/2024 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Indiana +7 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Indiana (11-1) bounced back from their loss to Ohio State with a 66-0 victory against Purdue as a 29-point favorite to conclude their regular season on November 30th. Notre Dame (11-1) rides a ten-game winning streak after their 49-35 win at USC as a 7-point favorite to complete their regular season on November 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The challenging aspect of assessing this Indiana is determining just how good they are after playing a schedule that had only two teams finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top fifty. With head coach Curt Cignetti bringing with him 13 players from his James Madison squad from last year, are these Hoosiers just a glorified, albeit talented, Group of Five opponent — or does the mix of 30 transfers onto a Power Five/Four conference roster enough to make this group a legitimate contender against the best teams in the country. I thought their 20-15 win against Michigan was impressive. While the Wolverines were held back by the lack of a quality quarterback, they were good to outstanding everywhere else on the field — and that is why they upset Ohio State in Columbus. The Michigan defense remained elite all season. If the Hoosiers lose that game, then Alabama probably takes their spot in the playoff. But Kurtis Rourke — a 24-year-old quarterback with tons of experience — led them down the field in key drives to withstand the pressure and win that game. Indiana’s 38-15 loss at Ohio State exposed some warts — but the Buckeyes’ have much more future NFL talent level than what the Fighting Irish bring to this game. Even still, the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes explosive offense to just 316 total yards — and the Buckeyes ran for just 115 yards on 29 carries. Interestingly, Indiana only trailed Ohio State by a 14-7 score going into halftime — and the combined first-half scores in both games put the Hoosiers up by a 24-17 margin. That is a reflection of how well Cignetti and his coaching staff prepared this team for those showdowns. It was in the second half that things went south with them getting outscored by a 36-11 margin in both games. But if something similar happens tonight and Indiana starts out well, then I suspect the humongous pressure that Notre Dame faces in this game begins to weigh heavily. This Fighting Irish has no claim on playing a more difficult schedule. Under head coach Marcus Freeman, they have been flat-track bullies — but I continue to wonder what the biggest win has been for this team with him as a head coach. Nine of their victories during their ten-game winning streak were by 14 or more points. Was the biggest victory in Freeman’s tenure that opening victory at Texas A&M this season. If that is not the one, then it probably prior wins against less-than-stellar Clemson or USC teams. Seriously. And there are always these bad clunkers along the way in pressure moments. After upsetting the Aggies, the Fighting Irish returned home to get upset by Northern Illinois despite being a four-touchdown favorite. They got upset as a double-digit favorite against Marshall and Stanford in his first season coaching the Irish. They laid eggs and blew their chance at the College Football Playoffs with clunkers against Louisville and Clemson last year. Even in their 49-35 win against the Trojans to end the season, they needed a 99-yard and a 100-yard interception returned for touchdowns to flip the script and pull away. USC (and former UNLV) quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 360 yards against them — and the Trojans generated 557 yards overall in the loss. I am a Riley Leonard skeptic — and the Notre Dame quarterback saw only 13% of his completions go for more than 20 yards this season, ranking 116th in the nation. The weather will contribute to a lack of explosive plays tonight. The Fighting Irish’s last two opponents ran for 197 and 207 yards against them.
FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the 20s in South Bend tonight with the wind chill dropping into the teens. I suspect the Hoosiers keep this a close game in the first half — and when the realization that another big upset may be brewing on Freeman’s watch, I expect things will get very tight. I give the edge at quarterback and coaching to Indiana. Cignetti will have this team ready and prepared to win — schematically and emotionally. His teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games on the road and 5 of their 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range in his career. 10* CFB Indiana-Notre Dame ABC-TV Special with Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.
