TDG’s NCAA-F INDIANA/NOTRE DAME VEGAS JACKPOT
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Indiana vs Notre Dame
- Time
- 12/20/2024 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Indiana +7 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 20* NCAA-F Indiana/Notre Dame Vegas Jackpot is with Indiana plus the points at 8 pm et.
Notre Dame earned the right to host an opening round game of the new expanded college football playoff by winning their final ten games in a row. Yet in hindsight, the Fighting Irish did not play the most challenging of schedules. Before the season started, dates at Texas A&M and USC along with a showdown with Florida State looked daunting. Yet the Seminoles collapsed this season and the Trojans continued to struggle on defense. The best defensive team they played all season was in their opener against the Aggies, and they scored their second-fewest points of the season in that 23-13 win. After the oddsmakers installed them as a field goal underdog in that game, the oddsmakers then installed them as a favorite of at least a touchdown in all of their remaining games. Their loss at home against Northern Illinois in the second week of the season stands out like a sore thumb. The Huskies were able to run for 190 yards against them from 45 carries and limited the Irish to just 128 yards from 23 carries. Indiana is in a better position to control both lines of scrimmage tonight than Northern Illinois was in that game. Perhaps head coach Marcus Freeman had difficulty focusing his team after the signature victory against Texas A&M the previous week. Yet now the college football world is in uncharted territory regarding how home favorites will respond to the tension of these opening-round games in this new tournament. Playing at home at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend may only add to the pressure the Irish will feel under the weight of high expectations. The weather will be a factor with temperatures dropping into the 20s tonight. While most of these players have plenty of experience being in the cold with their campuses in the State of Indiana, these conditions create discomfort, and discomfort may impact the favorite more under these conditions.
There are two things we know about this Indiana football team. First, they will not feel any pressure to meet heightened expectations. After winning only nine games in the last three seasons, going 11-1, and making the college football playoff exceeds even the most optimistic assessment of what this team could do. Second, head coach Curt Cignetti will have this team believing they can and will win this game. Confidence will not be an issue. Cignetti transformed this program with perhaps the greatest group of transfer players in the history of college football. With the help of a serious NIL program put into place, Cignetti added more than 30 new players into the program including thirteen that he brought with him from James Madison. That Dukes' team went 19-4 in his last two seasons there. The core of this team comes from that group that became very used to winning games. Sixteen of these transfer players are now playing major roles on this team, and only four of the Hoosiers starters from last year remain in significant roles this season. The offense is led by the 24-year-old Kurtis Rourke who won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year award in 2022. Coming from the MAC and with an older brother who has found great success in the Canadian Football League, Rourke will have a big chip on his shoulder along with the likely claim that he is the better quarterback in this game versus Riley Leonard. Rourke has played plenty of games from his November midweek games in the MAC in cold weather like this. He has four capable targets at wide receiver, yet it will be the rushing attack where they should make the most of their yardage. Running backs Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison join the mobile Rourke in a three-headed attack that pounds inside zone plays. The Hoosiers ranked sixth in the nation in rushing success rate. Lawton averaged 4.2 yards after contact against the stout Ohio State and Michigan run defenses. The Irish can be run on inside. Their defensive tackle Howard Cross III is smallish at 6’1 and 284 pounds. Notre Dame allowed a success rate of 59% against inside zone run schemes. Indiana ranked in the top ten in the nation in touchdown rate per trip inside the red zone, and the Irish gave up touchdowns in nine of their opponent’s last twelve trips inside the red zone in their final four games. The Hoosiers' defense should help keep this a close game as well. Their run defense held their opponents to 2.5 yards per carry and 71 rushing yards per game. They limited the Buckeyes to just one explosive drive. Six transfer players from James Madison including four who were named to the All-Sun Belt Conference team last year have helped build the cohesion of that unit led by defensive coordinator Bryant Haines who held the same position with the Dukes. Cignetti has coached against six teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher in his head coaching career. His teams have covered the point spread five times. Play Indiana plus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
