TOM'S 52-29 ATS GASPARILLA BOWL BEST BET
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Tulane vs Florida
- Time
- 12/20/2024 03:37 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Florida -10 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #210 FLORIDA (-) over Tulane at 3:30 PM EST
With plenty of steam off three straight wins and covers over LSU, Mississippi State, and Florida State, Florida will have no trouble extending the margin against Tulane. The Green Wave enter this postseason matchup off a pair of SU and ATS losses to the Tigers and Black Knights and this is going to be a tremendous challenge for head coach Jon Sumrall, especially without the services of starting quarterback Darian Mensah (committed to Duke via the transfer portal).
This is actually a solid wagering spot for the Gators. In non-conference play battling a rested opponent that checks in without momentum off a straight up loss, UF holds a solid 23-7 SU and 15-6-1 ATS record in its last 30 tries including a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS provided its opponent was priced as a favorite in their last game. Also, SEC teams have controlled AAC squads in the college bowls lately inking a respectable 7-4 SU and ATS mark in their last 11 matchups.
With Mensah gone, the Green Wave will place former Oregon quarterback Ty Thompson under center. This will be Thompson's first start of the year, and he will have all kinds of trouble matched up against a Gators stop unit that has caught fire over their last three games holding the Tigers, Rebels, and Seminoles to an average of only 14.7 points per game. To make matters worse, since 2013, AAC bowl underdogs own a pitiful 8-23 SU and 12-19 ATS record including a horrible 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in this setting provided they storm in without confidence off a straight up loss. Finally in their last 82 games priced as an underdog of +10 to +16.5, Tulane holds a soft 29-52 ATS record.
The Gators have inked a disturbing 0-3 SU and ATS mark in their last three bowl battles and have lost by an average of 24.7 points per game. This time head coach Billy Napier and his boys get it right. Take Florida. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
