- Analysis
- #211 INDIANA (+) over Notre Dame at 8 PM EST
Packing an offense that is ranked second in the FBS in scoring (avg 43.3 ppg) and a defense that is ranked sixth in the FBS in scoring (allow an avg of 14.7 ppg), Indiana is worth a look plus the generous points on Friday night. Even though Notre Dame has the advantage of playing at home, the Fighting Irish will have their hands full with this more than capable Hoosiers squad that will be competing with a tremendous chip on their shoulder.
The history in this series is certainly noted. Indiana owns a horrible 5-23-1 SU record in the last 29 meetings. Fortunately, the Hoosiers hold a solid 12-5 SU and 12-4 ATS mark in their last 17 games including a nearly perfect 8-3 SU and 9-1 ATS provided they are priced between -13 and +10 points, respectively. Additionally, in postseason play (particularly the bowls), Big 10 underdogs that check in with momentum off a SU and ATS victory hold a reliable 48-30 ATS record in their last 78 wars. If our "play on" side is priced as a pooch between +2.5 and +9 points, this technical situation improves to a stunning 40-18 ATS including a powerful 25-9 ATS provided their opponent storms in with steam off a straight up win.
Notre Dame found success in its last two postseason matchups picking up wins and covers over Oregon State in last year's Sun Bowl and, in 2023, over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. However, in their last 24 postseason battles, the Fighting Irish have lost their punch posting a soft 8-16 SU and 9-15 ATS record. Also, when coming off a straight up rivalry win over USC, Notre Dame holds a feeble 6-11 ATS tally in its last 17 games. Finally, when priced as a favorite of -20 or less against Big 10 foes, the Irish hold a soft 23-42-2 ATS tally.
The Hoosiers failed their first real test in Columbus against the Buckeyes. Head coach Curt Cignetti will make sure IU plays much better here. Take Indiana. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
