Nelly’s Friday CFP Playoff Winner 35-20 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Indiana vs Notre Dame
- Time
- 12/20/2024 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Notre Dame -7 (-107)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Since the shocking loss to Northern Illinois in the second week of the season, Notre Dame is 10-0 S/U while also 9-1 ATS despite often facing significant favorite spreads. The last time Notre Dame was priced at -7.5 they won 66-7 at Purdue in what looks like a horrible line at this point in the season, and the market actually moved sharply against the Irish that week coming off the loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame has scored at least 31 points in eight straight games on the 8-0 S/U and 8-0 ATS run since late September and allowed 14 or fewer points in six of those games as it has been a dominant run the Irish should be considered a viable threat to win it all, particularly if Carson Beck is ruled out for Georgia, who will play the winner of this game. Curt Cignetti’s 11-1 season at Indiana is one of the greatest transformations in college football history. The Hoosiers went 9-3 ATS but did lose by 23 against Ohio State, the only foe in the same conversation as this Notre Dame team. Ohio State closed as a 10.5-point favorite against Indiana in Columbus and while the Buckeyes did catch a few breaks to pull ahead early in that game, the Hoosiers finished with just 151 yards and half of that came on a 15-play drive late in the game with the contest clearly already decided. Credit Indiana for numerous wins in dominant fashion but it was an incredibly favorable Big Ten path with a strength of schedule weaker than Notre Dame’s independent path. Indiana has at least two key players on defense expected to miss this game in contrast to the great injury fortune Indiana had this season. This pairing may boil down to a battle of Notre Dame’s elite rushing offense vs. Indiana’s elite run defense with the Irish posting an incredible 7.3 yards per rush in the past three games, more than double Indiana’s rushing offense average in that time, a figure that won’t be helped by a late season offensive line shake-up for the Hoosiers since the injury to Drew Evans. The weather could exaggerate that advantage as well with cold, windy conditions with snow possible Friday night. Notre Dame has shown up in the bowl season for Marcus Freeman with 120 points in three games including back-to-back wins the past two seasons. Cignetti has never coached in a bowl game as James Madison wasn’t eligible in 2022 and he left before last season’s Armed Forces Bowl.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
