TDG’s MLB WILD CARD PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Time
- 10/03/2024 07:08 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 7 (-122)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year is with New York Mets/Milwaukee over at 7:08 pm et.
The Milwaukee Brewers scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to keep their season alive by beating the Mets, 5-3, to force the final third game in the wild card playoffs. The Brewers got shut out by the Mets on Sunday to end their regular season, yet they have scored a combined 28 runs in five of their other last six games. They have given up 16 combined runs in their last three games, all against this New York team. Milwaukee has played twenty of their last twenty-seven games at home over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite from -125 to -175. Manager Pat Murphy turns to rookie Tobias Myers as his starting pitcher for this critical game. The right-hander has a 9-6 record with a 3.00 era and a 1.17 whip in his twenty-seven appearances. This is a pressure spot for the rookie who gives up fly balls on 40.0% of the batted balls against him. The average exit velocity on the batted balls against him is 89.7 miles per hour, ranking in the 24th lowest percentile in the league. He is only getting ground balls on 37.7% of the batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 22nd percentile. He has a strand rate of 81.1% of the runners that get on base against him, much higher than the MLB average at 72.1%. The majority of his service time last year was in a double-a for the Brewers. In those 137 2/3 innings, he left only 68.6% of runners on base that got on against him. He does not throw hard with his fastball velocity at 92.9 miles per hour, ranking in the lowest 31st percentile. His whiff rate is just on 21.1% of his strikes, ranking in the 14th lowest percentile. Milwaukee has played six of their last nine home games over the number when Myers was their starting pitcher. In the Brewers' last twelve games with Myers their starting pitcher when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to -125 or as an underdog up to +125, they have played eight of those games over the number.
New York has three of four games with eight or more combined runs were scored. They have played twenty-seven of their last forty-two road games over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They have played fourteen of their last twenty-three road games over the total against opponents winning 54% to 62% of their games. Jose Quintana is their starting pitcher tonight. The left-hander has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 era and a 1.25 whip in thirty-one starts. He was running hot with three straight starts without allowing an earned run before facing the Brewers in his most recent outing. Milwaukee scored two runs against him from five base hits on Saturday. Quintana has pitched nine innings against Milwaukee this year. He has given up four earned runs from 11 base hits and another four walks. He is another soft-tosser who averages only 90.7 miles per hour on his fastball, ranking in the lowest 19th percentile. He is walking only 18.8% of opposing hitters, ranking in the lowest 18th percentile. His whiff rate on strikes is just 21.8%, ranking in the 19th percentile. Play the over.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
