TDG’s NFL DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Time
- 10/03/2024 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* NFC South Game of the Month is on Tampa Bay plus the points versus Atlanta at 8:15 pm et.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers improved to 3-1 this season after a 33-16 upset victory at home against Philadelphia last week. The defense got after it by sacking Jalen Hurts six times and registering a hit against him another six times. This spells trouble for Kirk Cousins who is even slower with his feet coming off his torn ACL surgery last year. Baker Mayfield rebounded from the team’s 26-7 loss to Denver two weeks ago by completing 30 of 47 passes for 347 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Mayfield tore up the Eagles secondary who was not playing press coverage against wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans caught eight balls for 94 yards with a touchdown, and Godwin added six receptions for 69 yards. Mayfield now faces a Falcons defense that only uses press coverage 30% of the time, ranking the fourth lowest in the NFL. Atlanta only ranks 24th in pressure rate despite blitzing a lot. Mayfield will have plenty of time tonight to find open receivers, and he picks apart blitzing defenses since that leaves receivers open. The Falcons rank last in sack rate this season. They are playing the sixth-most zone defense in pass coverage. They rank 24th in the league in completion percentage above expected completion percentage. The Buccaneers made the playoffs last year, and they look to continue to lead the pace in the NFC South standings. They have covered the point spread in eleven of their last fifteen games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games on the road when playing a team from the NFC.
Atlanta comes off a 26-24 win against New Orleans last week in a game where their offense was responsible for only three field goals. They opened the game by recovering a fumble in the end zone. They later scored on a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. They only gained 315 yards in that game, and the Saints outgained them by 51 yards. The Falcons have lost two of their three games at home this season. They are averaging only 17.7 points per game at home and averaging 284 yards per game. Kirk Cousins has thrown four touchdown passes yet has four interceptions. He is completing only 64.7% of his passes. The Falcons have the second-lowest yards after completion over the expected yards after completion in the league, meaning Cousins is not throwing the football to receivers in open spaces. They rank 29th in the league by converting on only 10 of 38 third downs this season. Atlanta has covered the point spread twice in their last seven games at home after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in three of their last ten games after winning their previous game by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in five of their last eighteen games when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite, and they have covered the point spread in four of their last nine games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to seven points. They have covered the point spread in four of their last seventeen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to three points or as an underdog of up to three points. Play Tampa Bay plus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
