25* MLB WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Time
- 10/03/2024 07:08 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Milwaukee Brewers -124
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (94-70) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory at home against the Mets to force this decisive third game in this best-of-three series. New York (90-74) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Brewers are tough to beat at home — they have won 34 of their last 53 games at home when listed as a -110 or higher money-line favorite. They have also won 19 of their last 29 home games when listed as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. They send out Myers who has a 9-6 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The rookie right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA along with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in 13 games (12 starts) as opposed to his 3.15 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 14 games (13 starts) on the road. Myers is very steady relying primarily on his slider and change-up — he has not allowed more than two earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts. In his last 20 starts going back to June, he sports a 2.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His last outing was against this Mets team where he only allowed one hit and no earned runs in four innings of work. The Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 home games when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Myers faces a Mets team that ranks 29th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. He will be supported by an outstanding bullpen -- led by closer Devin Williams --that has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. In the last seven games, the Milwaukee bullpen has a 2.23 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP with three saves and no blown saves. New York, on the other hand, has a tired bullpen that has thrown 11 1/3 innings since Monday given their doubleheader with Atlanta. In their last seven games, they have not registered a save while blowing two saves after Phil Maton gave up four hits and three earned runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night when the Mets blew a 3-2 lead. Their bullpen has a 5.91 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in their last seven games. New York has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 28 of their last 45 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. He gave up five hits and two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against this Brewers club. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.64 ERA along with a 1.21 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 16 starts on the road. The Mets have lost 6 of their 8 road games this season with Quintana on the mound listed as a +/- 125 price range. Quintanta’s teams have also lost 6 of their 8 playoff games when he makes the start. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has won 22 of their last 36 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 52 of their last 90 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (930) versus the New York Mets (929) listing both starting pitchers Tobias Myers and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.
