NFL THURSDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Time
- 10/03/2024 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games between Weeks Five and Nine. The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a straight-up victory. Now after completing a two-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games against fellow NFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
