25* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Time
- 10/03/2024 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Under 44 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
