VW'S NFL DIVISION LINE MISTAKE WINNER
- Handicapper
- Vegas Writer
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Time
- 10/03/2024 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE WEEK: I'll be more than happy to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight, plus the points on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.
Let's be real here, the Atlanta Falcons are 2-2, but could be 0-4. They shouldn't have beaten the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 and somehow the New Orleans Saints let the Dirty Birds nab the decision in Week 4.
I don't think they're as good as a 2-2 team.
I do think the Buccaneers are every bit as good as their 3-1 mark. I also think they were caught off guard in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos. Tampa Bay certainly deserved to lose, but they play that game again and the Bucs win.
Now we have a division mash, and I'm not about to bank on a Falcons team that ranks 21st in EPA per play (-0.048) and 23rd in EPA per play allowed (0.028). Fact is, we're talking about a sub-par team that is far from efficient on both sides of the ball, and that will be facing an offense that threw 37 on the Washington Commanders and 33 on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Outside of their 26-7 loss to the Broncos, the Buccaneers have shown efficiency on offense, ranking ninth in EPA per play (0.069) and eighth with their dropback EPA per play (0.133).
I personally think many bettors are making their decisions based on a Baker Mayfield vs. Kirk Cousins matchup.
Mayfield comes in ranked 10th at Pro Football Focus, while passer Cousins is 23rd. And in a game like this, a division matchup, I want the guy who has shown a little more aggressiveness with his play. I also want to know my offense has the more reliable playmakers.
The Buccaneers, who have won seven of the last 10 meetings, are in on an 8-4 ATS roll as a road pup.
Take Tampa Bay with my NFC South Game of the Week.
