Fargo's NFL Primetime Dominator 12-3 NFL Run
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Time
- 10/03/2024 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta came away with a win on a last second field goal over New Orleans in Week Four despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Falcons recovered a punt for a touchdown and has an interception for another and we have yet to see this offense come alive and we could finally see that happen here. They have the benefit of playing on a short week in consecutive games while Tampa Bay has to travel and while it is not a far jaunt, the time takes away from preparation. Atlanta is just No. 20 in total offense with Kirk Cousins coming off another below average performance. Atlanta has gone down to the last seconds in each of its last three games, winning two of those and this is the situation where the Falcons can finally have that overall effort against a still banged up defense and what is considered an overvalued offense. Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia from the start as it jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the defense did its job the rest of the way. This game was a question of are the Buccaneers this good or are the Eagles in trouble and we are going with the latter as they have been out of sorts all season whether it be offense or defense. Baker Mayfield had a great game to help Tampa Bay improve to 3-1 on the season but it has been inconsistent as it is ranked No. 16 in total offense and No. 11 in total defense and that is where the Luck Ratings come into play. Despite the domination of Philadelphia, this is where recency bias comes into play because that is what most will remember and what the line is being based on, not the Buccaneers last road game at Detroit where they were outgained by 296 yards despite winning which is also being in that Luck Rating effect. 10* (302) Atlanta Falcons
