TDG’s MLB FRIDAY NIGHT VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Time
- 07/26/2024 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks -160
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Friday Night Vegas Jackpot is with Arizona with the money line versus Pittsburgh at 9:40 p.m. ET.
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ record dropped to 39-43 on June 28th after losing their third game in a row in a 9-4 loss to the Oakland A’s. Since that loss, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-7 to raise their record to 53-50. While trailing the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 1/2 games in the NL West division, they are back in the thick of the National League wildcard race. They trail San Diego by only one game for the third and final wildcard spot with two games in hand. They have won two games in a row after an 8-6 victory against Kansas City on Wednesday at home at Chase Field. Arizona has won six of their last nine games at home. Hitting is down this season with the league batting average at .243, the on-base percentage at .312, and the slugging percentage at .397. The defending National League champions finally woke up their bats last month when they posted a .269 batting average, a .341 on-base percentage, and a .433 slugging percentage. They have been even better this month with a .464 slugging percentage that accompanies their above-average .261 batting average and .339 on-base percentage. The Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs in fourteen of their last twenty games. They have a good chance of extending that scoring streak tonight against the Pirates’ Luis L. Ortiz. Arizona has scored eight or more runs in six of their last twelve games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Ortiz is in a good rhythm right now with a 5-2 record to go with his 2.57 era and a 1.11 whip. Yet he is only striking out 19.7% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the bottom 28th percentile. He has stranded 77.0% of the runners that have gotten on base against him which is the best rate of his career and higher than the current MLB average of 72.0%. He has been fortunate as well with opposing hitters' batting average for the balls put into play against him of .272. Last year, Ortiz had a babip of .309 and the MLB average this season is currently .288. Pitchers with a low strikeout rate with higher than expected babip and strand rates are the ones likely to see their numbers worsen sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh is one of the teams in the hunt to take an NL wildcard spot. With a 52-50 record after their 5-0 win against St. Louis on Wednesday, they are 1 1/2 games behind the Padres for the final NL playoff position. Yet they begin a six-game road trip where they have .234/.304/.364 hitting splits away from home. Against right-handed pitchers, the Pirates have .227/.294/.360 splits. They face the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. The right-hander pitched five scoreless innings on the road against the Chicago Cubs last Saturday. For the season, Gallen has a 7-5 record with a 3.64 era and a 1.25 whip in sixteen starts. His babip has been a bit high at .300 which is above not only the league average but also his .278 career mark. He walked six batters in that last start yet did not allow any of those runners to score. Returning home should help. In his 62 career starts at Chase Field, Gallen has a 2.90 era and a 1.006 whip. His record is 28-16 in those games. Play Arizona with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
