25* MLB AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox
- Time
- 07/26/2024 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Under 7.5 (-120)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. THE SITUATION: Seattle (53-51) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss at home to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. Chicago (27-78) has lost 11 games in a row after a 2-1 loss at Texas yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in tailspins for the same reason: they can’t hit. The Mariners have lost three games in a row while scoring just one run in each contest. They have not scored more than two runs in seven of their last eight games. They were having enough trouble generating runs before Julio Rodriguez suffered a high-angle sprain last weekend. The team did just trade for Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay but he will not join the team before tomorrow. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than one run in their last game. But the Mariners are getting great pitching. Kirby gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 7-7 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last ten starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.06 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. In his last five starts on the road, he sports a 2.03 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics validate his season-lone ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at exactly 3.20. Both his SIERA and xFIP which rely on fielding independent data project his ERA at 3.27 each moving forward. He has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last ten starts when he gave up three earned runs against Toronto on July 7th. Chicago has not scored more than four runs in 12 straight games — and they have scored three runs or less in 11 of those games. They have two runs or less in nine of their last 11 contests — and they have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games with four of those games seeing one run or less scored by them. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Thorpe who has a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in seven starts. The rookie right-hander has endured one bad start at Arizona when he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He has given up only six earned runs in his other six starts — and he has registered five straight Quality Starts. Tonight’s game will be just his third start at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .122. He should have success against this Seattle team that ranks 28th and 27th this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White rank last in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitchers — and this is a mark that has remained remarkably consistent since they are also last in these categories since May 1st and since June 1st. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. Best of luck for us — Frank.
