Nelly’s Friday Night AL Showcase 14-5 AL RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Time
- 07/26/2024 07:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Texas Rangers +112
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The splits vs. left-handers for the 2024 season so far favor Texas considerably heading into Friday’s draw of southpaws as Texas visits Toronto. The Rangers held on for a narrow win Thursday while the Blue Jays were blown out. The Blue Jays are 10 games below .500 and buried in the AL playoff race while Texas may still have some life. The defending World Series champions have been a disappointment, but they are only 2.5 games out of the AL West lead despite still being a game below .500. Texas is 91 runs superior to Toronto in run differential this season and Texas has 13 wins against left-handed starters compared to only seven for Toronto. In the past 10 games the Rangers have hit .278 with 8.1 runs per nine vs. left-handers, the Blue Jays in that span have hit .143 and have not scored a single run vs. a left-hander in the past 10 games. Yusei Kikuchi has solid numbers and there is a good chance this will be his last start for the Blue Jays as he has been in several rumored deals as the trade deadline approaches. While Kikuchi has a 10.1 K/9, his ERA is still 4.54 and his career HR/9 is 1.6, one of the highest among any active AL starters. Kikuchi has also failed to produce stronger splits at home and since mid-June his ERA is 7.49, while winless in seven starts. Andrew Heaney has a 4-10 record this season but his ERA is just 3.60 with a FIP below 4.00. His strikeout and walk numbers are steady and he has stronger numbers in his road starts this season. Heaney had a horrible first month of the season, but he has a 2.81 ERA in 14 starts since May 1, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all those outings. The bullpen has been a problem for both teams this season, but Texas has a clear edge, particularly in the past 10 games with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP compared to the Toronto bullpen holding a 6.37 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP. Yesterday’s blowout loss didn’t help the Toronto bullpen with a third straight game using at least five pitchers while three Texas relievers threw just 34 pitches combined, while on Wednesday the Rangers needed only 21 pitches from the bullpen.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
