Sean's 10* MLB N.L. GAME OF YEAR **5-1 RUN**
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Time
- 07/26/2024 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Pittsburgh Pirates +147
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- National League Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday.
NOTE: This play will be 'action' with the Diamondbacks yet to officially name their starter (Zac Gallen is probable).
The Pirates are every bit as much involved in the National League playoff hunt as the Diamondbacks and they're just as hot as well, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games. They'll turn to Luis Ortiz on Friday while the D'Backs haven't settled on a starter (at the time of writing) but Zac Gallen looks like the leading candidate.
Ortiz has been quietly effective for the Buccos this season, rewarding them for sticking with him after a disastrous 2023 campaign. Ortiz logged a FIP nearing six last year but has bounced back to post a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in north of 70 innings of work this season. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in his four starts to date. While not bursting with depth, the Pirates bullpen is worth betting on when rested, which is the case here following an off day on Thursday.
If Gallen does get the start for the D'Backs, that serves our purposes just fine. He hasn't been the dominant pitcher we've come to expect this season and Arizona has lost each of his last two home starts and is just 3-5 in his last eight outings overall. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts.
Note that the Pirates have been trending in the right direction offensively, climbing the ladder in terms of weighted on base average over the last 14 and seven days. Arizona was red hot and while still effective at the dish, it has cooled slightly over the last seven and 14 days (according to wOBA). Arizona did bolster its bullpen by adding A.J. Puk in a trade yesterday but that only further illustrates that its relief corps is an issue. Puk owns a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
