The PGA Tour remains in the Sunshine State this week for THE PLAYERS Championship taking place from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The event has been played since 1974 and has been held at TPC Sawgrass since 1982 with the only year not played was the COVID year of 2020. The course is a par 72 at 7,352-yards, an increase of 75 yards from last year. While not considered a target course, it is a positional course as precision is a priority with water in play on 12 holes, including all three finishing holes, and 92 bunkers are spread throughout. Those final three holes have won or lost many tournaments.
We saw the first back-to-back winner last year with Scottie Scheffler who won by one shot over a trio of runner-ups to erase a five-shot deficit going into the final round with a Sunday 64. He joined six other players as two-time winners, the first since 2013 when Tiger Woods captured his second victory, and Scheffler will be looking to join Jack Nicklaus the only three-time champion. Woods is the most notable absence this week and the field is stacked as usual with 48 of the top 50 players in the world competing, Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau the lone absentees from that list.
While pivotal most weeks, driving distance is always a good attribute to have but this is not a course that gives bombers a huge advantage, of course with the exception of the par fives that average 554 yards. Ball strikers have the most success here which should come as no surprise based on the hazards and the small and well-defended greens being hit into. Of the last 12 winners, 10 finished inside the top ten in Strokes Gained: Approach to provide better birdie opportunities with only 2018 champion Webb Simpson giving back to the field and 2017 champion Si Woo Kim at +4.1 (16th). This also correlates to Three Putt Avoidance which is important all the time but even more so on these fast Bermuda greens.
From a results standpoint, THE PLAYERS recent champions have a lot in common. Course fit and experience at TPC Sawgrass are important which is the case with most tournaments held at the same course and here, 15 of the last 16 winners have had at least one finish inside the top 25 in prior starts with the one exception being Scheffler of all players when he won in 2023. Current playing form is just as important as of the last eight winners, six have finished T21 or better in their last tour event, the two exceptions being Cam Young in 2022 when he finished T33 at The Genesis Invitational and Si Woo Kim in 2017 after missing the cut at the Zurich Classic. We are now relying heavily on this but more of looking at the last five events.
Weather in March cannot be ignored and it looks to be really good from Thursday through Saturday with a chance of rain and higher winds on Sunday. With Thursday/Friday looking ideal, we are not concerned about morning/afternoon waves.
Top three key categories this week:
Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenThree Putt Avoidance
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Ludvig AbergOdds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 330 ~ Top Ten 175Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 82.50 ~ Top Ten 43.75
Aberg is a premier ball striker and since the 2023 BMW PGA when his first 50-Round moving average was calculated at 0.00, he has been trending up ever since. In his last 25 starts, he is +SG in 21 of those and his one big disaster was at Pebble Beach where he was -4.41 SG but he was fighting a bug and had to WD. He opened 2025 with a T5 at The Sentry and he went downward because of the illness and came back to win The Genesis. A poor Saturday hurt him at the API last week but still managed a T22. He has made one start at THE PLAYERS and he finished solo eighth so no experience mattered to him. His ball striking will be there and when he is +SG: Putting, he has 11 top 12s in those last 25 starts.
Justin ThomasOdds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 1,100.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50
Thomas is a past winner at THE PLAYERS back in 2021 and while he has trended down since then here, his game was trending down everywhere he played. He has missed the cut only once in nine starts here so he has the experience and course fit. He seems to be back at the top of his game and over the last 36 rounds, he is No. 1 in SG: Approach and over his last 12 starts, he has been +SG. He is also No. 5 in SG: Around The Green and over those 12 starts, he is +SG in 10 of those. This has resulted in six top 15s including three top fives. He is up and down with the putter and if he gets that going this week, his first victory since 2022 is in play.
Hideki MatsuyamaOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 260Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 65.00
Matsuyama is another elite ball striker as he has been +SG: Approach in 12 of his last 14 starts and he has been just as good around the green, being +SG: Around The Green in 12 of 14 starts as well. His issues have always been with the putter as he has been -SG every year from 2020-2024 but he is +0.40 this year. His best putting performance of the season of +1.51 was at his win at The Sentry. Even though he has not won here, he is ranked No. 1 in the field in Course History as he has four top tens in nine starts and of the seven he has made the cut, he has finished no lower than T22. Also, he opened the 2020 event with a 63 before it was cancelled due to COVID.
Shane LowryOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 700 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 175.00 ~ Top Ten 82.50
We love what we saw from Lowry in the first two rounds last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational but a rough Saturday knocked him out of contention yet he still finished solo seventh. His iron play let him down over the weekend which was a surprise as he is No. 15 in SG: Approach and in his last 25 starts, he has been -SG only four times. He has not been as sharp in SG: Around The Green but has still been +SG in 13 of those starts. He finished solo second at Pebble Beach thanks to positive SG everywhere including +1.60 in Putting which can be his downfall similar to others in this mix. In his last four starts at THE PLAYERS, he has three top 20s including a solo eighth.
Sepp StrakaOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 2,500.00 ~ Top Five 212.50 ~ Top Ten 100.00
Even though we think Straka should be popular this week, the odds are not reflecting that mainly because he is not a household name to the common bettor. He has a win at The American Express and is the leader in FedEx Cup Points thanks to missing only one cut in eight starts while having seven top 15s including a T5 last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. He had his worst approach game by far at The Genesis where he missed the cut and it was only the fourth time in his last 25 starts he has been -SG. He is +SG: Around The Green in 2025 for the first time in seven years and he has a T9 and T16 in two of the last three years at THE PLAYERS.
Joel DahmenOdds: Win 15,000 ~ Top Five 2,200 ~ Top Ten 1,000Payout: Win 7,500.00 ~ Top Five 550.00 ~ Top Ten 250.00
This is the flyer play but we take the shot on another elite ball striker who is also very accurate off the tee. Dahmen has been +SG in both approach and off the tee in his last five starts, which has been the case in his last eight full years, and while he missed the cut in two of those recent starts, it was because of his poor play around the greens and if that can improve, history shows it does at TPC Sawgrass, he can easily be in the mix. He has missed the cut at THE PLAYERS only once in five starts where he was elite tee to green but was -2.53 in SG: Putting and he does have a T11 and T12 in those four trips to the weekend and now we catch him in excellent form.
Results through The Arnold Palmer Invitational (6 Tournaments):
Win: -12,500Top Five: -3,875Top Ten: +725
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