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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/06/2025

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Apr 06, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket. The Chicago Bulls travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets at 1:10 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point road favorite with the total set at 226.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 233. The Toronto Raptors play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 213.5. Four NBA games start at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 243.5. The Portland Trail Blazers are home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 3-point favorite with a total of 227.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Sacramento Kings as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Washington Wizards as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 226. The New York Knicks are home against the Phoenix Suns at 7:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Denver Nuggets host the Indiana Pacers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 238.5. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks are in New Orleans to face the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Houston Rockers as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. The Washington Capitals visit New York to play the Islanders on TNT at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Minnesota against the Wild on TNT at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers are in Detroit to play the Red Wings at 5:37 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres host the Boston Bruins as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play in Chicago against the Blackhawks as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Nashville Predators play at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Vancouver to go against the Canucks on ESPN as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has one game between Division I opponents with the finals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Nebraska battles Central Florida on Fox at 5:30 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 159.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Five MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox are home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -115 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees travel to Pittsburgh to challenge the Pirates as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Philadelphia against the Phillies as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Washington against the Nationals as a -175 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the Chicago White Sox as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Houston Astros as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles visit the Kansas City Royals as a -112 road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the San Diego Padres as a -135 money-line favorite. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Oakland A’s play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The San Francisco Giants host the Seattle Mariners at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the Boston Red Sox playing at home against the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox are a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League continues with four games. Three games start at 9:00 a.m. ET. Chelsea travel to Brentford on the USA  Network as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Liverpool plays at Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham is home against Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester City is at Manchester United at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.  

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, EPL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/05/2025

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 05, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The New York Knicks travel to Atlanta to face the Hawks at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite, with the total set at 237 (all odds from DraftKings). Two more NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Detroit to play the Grizzlies as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 239.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play in Philadelphia to go against the 76ers as a 15-point road favorite with a total of 225. The Milwaukee Bucks are in Miami to face the Heat at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 215.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Dallas Mavericks at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 220.5. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the New York Rangers on ABC at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Florida Panthers play in Ottawa against the Senators at 2:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins on ABC at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -305 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Kings are home against the Edmonton Oilers as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Vancouver Canucks host the Anaheim Ducks as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.Six NHL games start at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche are on the road at St. Louis Blues as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Montreal Canadiens play at home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit the Utah Hockey Club as a -142 money-line road favor with an over/under of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Buffalo against the Sabres as a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in Boston to take on the Boston Bruins as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Seattle Kraken traveled to San Jose to play the Sharks as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Calgary against the Flames as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents. The semifinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament take place on Fox at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State battles Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 15.4.5. Villanova challenges Central Florida at 4:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 156.5. The final four of the national championship in college basketball at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, has two games on CBS. Florida takes on Auburn at 6:09 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 159.5. Duke goes against Houston at 8:49 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Houston Astros as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs are home against the San Diego Padres at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play the Philadelphia Phillies as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Washington to battle the Nationals as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets host the Toronto Blue Jays as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on FS1 as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Oakland A’s play in Colorado against the Rockies at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The San Francisco Giants are home against the Seattle Mariners at 9:05 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians visit Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League begins with five games. Arsenal is at Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -0.5-goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Three more EPL games start at 10:00 a.m. ET. Crystal Palace hosts Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton plays at Ipswich Town on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Bournemouth is at West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Aston Villa plays at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/04/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 04, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Sacramento Kings travel to Charlotte to face the Kings as an 11-point road favorite with the total set at 219.5. The Indiana Pacers host the Utah Jazz as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Detroit Pistons play in Toronto against the Raptors as a 12-point road favorite with a total of 227.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 15-point favorite with an over/under of 228.Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in Houston to take on the Rockets as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers visit San Antonio to challenge the Spurs as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 241. The Chicago Bulls are home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The Denver Nuggets play in Golden State against the Warriors as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 233. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:40 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 225. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the Dallas Mavericks as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Carolina Hurricanes are in Detroit to battle the Red Wings a a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Washington Capitals are home against the Chicago Black Hawks as a -425 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago Cubs are home against the San Diego Padres at 2:20 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Mets host the Toronto Blue Jays at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Oakland A’s travel to Colorado to face the Rockies at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The New York Yankees play in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 4:12 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 4:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Philadelphia to battle the Phillies on Apple TV+ as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Washington to go against the Nationals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins at 7:15 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers are home against the Tampa Bay Rays on Apple TV+ at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cleveland Guardians play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, EPL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/03/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 03, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Philadelphia to face the 76ers as a 12-point road favorite, with the total set at 224.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Orlando Magic play in Washington against the Wizards as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 216.5. Three NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are in Miami to play the Heat on TNT as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 227. The Portland Trail Blazers visit Toronto to face the Raptors as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. The Minnesota Timberwolves play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 216. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Golden State Warriors on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Montreal Canadiens play at home against the Boston Bruins as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in Ottawa to go against the Senators as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche visit Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars are home against the Nashville Predators as a -290 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The St. Louis Blues host the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings play in Utah against the Hockey Club at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are home against the Winnipeg Jets at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are in San Jose to face the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -278 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has three games between Division I opponents. The final two games in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Cincinnati challenges Central Florida as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.5.The championship game of the NIT takes place at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. UC-Irvine battles Chattanooga on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5. The second quarterfinal game in the College Basketball Crown has Villanova taking on USC at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 151.5. Major League Baseball has five games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Houston Astros at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League concludes with one game. Chelsea is home to take on Tottenham at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/02/2025

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 02, 2025

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and EPL action. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 230 (all odds from DraftKings). The Indiana Pacers play at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Sacramento Kings travel to Washington to face the Wizards as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The Boston Celtics are home against the Miami Heat at 7:40 p.m. ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 213. The Houston Rockets host the Utah Jazz at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238. The Denver Nuggets are home against the San Antonio Spurs at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 235.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Detroit Pistons on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 18-point favorite with a total of 216.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New York Rangers are home against the Minnesota Wild on TNT as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the Washington Capitals as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche plays at Chicago against the Blackhawks on TNT at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -360 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks are home against the Seattle Kraken at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has the first two games in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Boise State battles Butler at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5. Nebraska challenges Georgetown at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds host the Texas Rangers as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Tampa Bay to face the Rays as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The St. Louis Cardinals are home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:15 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Washington Nationals play in Toronto to go against the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs are in Oakland to play the A’s at 3:35 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros host the San Francisco Giants as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers travel to Seattle to play the Mariners as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets play in Miami against the Marlins at 4:40 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are home against the Colorado Rockies at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 8:38 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League continues with six games. Five matches start at 2:45 p.m. ET. Bournemouth is home against Ipswich Town as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Brighton and Hove Albion host the Aston Villa as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City hosts Leicester City on the USA Network as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Crystal Palace visits Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Everton at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.  

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Valero Texas Open Preview and Best Bets

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Apr 01, 2025

Min Woo Lee held off Sunday back nine charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to capture his first PGA Tour title with a one shot win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. San Antonio will be abuzz this weekend with the PGA Tour in town along with the city hosting the Final Four and even the Cleveland Cavalier make an appearance on Friday. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010. TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which reduces some of the distance because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind. Trying to defend his 2024 win is Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his second career PGA Tour win in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. He maintained a six-shot lead with nine holes remaining but McCarthy birdied his final seven holes to force the playoff which Bhatia won on the first hole. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Bhatia will have a tough time defending against a talented field. Eight players ranked in the OWGR Top 25 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. Ludvig Aberg (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Corey Conners (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20/1) are the chalky favorites this week. Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter. There have been weather issues each of the last three weeks, leading to a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, a Thursday/Friday wind wave at the Valspar Championship and heavy rain and storms leading to delays and ball in hand for the first three days in Houston. The biggest threat of rain in the forecast is overnight Friday into Saturday so precipitation looks clean. The wind will be lurking as usual but should not make a big impact with the worst of it coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thursday will be relatively calm and after that, gusts will not be constant and top out around 20-23 mph Friday-Sunday so this looks to be the first time in a month we need not be weather concerned. Top four key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenSand Saves GainedStrokes Gained: Off-The-Tee Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Jordan SpiethOdds: Win 2,000 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 10,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 525.00 Spieth has been inconsistent in most areas but has shown flashes in all SG categories. He has not won since 2022 when he was +0.99 in SG: Total and in six starts this year, he is +0.90 so he is close. In his last start at the Valspar Championship, he finished T28 where his iron game was dialed in as he was +1.96 in SG: Approach and his issue was surprisingly with the driver as he was -0.32 in SG: Off-The-Tee, only the third time in his last 23 starts he has been (-) in that category. He has a T4 and a T9 this year and in both events, his putter was on fire and that will not be needed here as his other strengths can get him over the top. Daniel BergerOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00 It has been a long, hard comeback for Berger. After missing the latter half of 2022 and all of 2023, most of 2024 was a struggle but he regained his form in the Fall Swing with a T2 and a T7. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts this season, he has five straight top 25s including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. He is (+) in all SG categories and he is No. 3 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained so his short game is fine tuned. He is No. 20 in SG: Approach and has moved up to No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee while his putting has trended up after almost every event. Bud CauleyOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Cauley has not won in a decade but he is now fully healthy after recovering from a car accident that cost him all but one event from 2021-2023. Last year was a struggle obviously and while it has only been six starts this year, his +1.30 SG: Total is the best of his career and he is in great form with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the Valspar Championship. Only seven players in the field are ranked in the top 40 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-The-Green, Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance and he is one of them while sitting in the top 10 in SG: Approach. Not to mention, he is No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee so his overall game puts him in great position. Lee HodgesOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 Hodges closed last season with a T8, T16 and T5 in three of his last four starts and started this season with a T10 at the Sony open and a T9 at the Farmers but he sustained a rib injury that affected him in his next two starts. He had to take six weeks off but he came back last week to finish T11 in Houston so he has not missed a beat. He was one of the worst putters last year and was (-) in SG: Putting in 11 of his last 12 starts but is (+) in five of six this season which is a bonus to go along with his elite ball striking where he has been (+) in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and is No. 9 in the field in that category and has been (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all six starts. Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 35,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,750.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 We ran with Smalley last week and he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio by one shot, his second MC in as many weeks but we are going with him again in a buy low spot as his odds have gone up considerably. This came after four straight T21 or better finishes so we are not jumping off just yet. He was (-) in SG: Approach in those last two events which could not make up for spectacular driving and that has been his go to since last July. Like Berger, his short game is spot on as he is No. 10 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained. He had a MC here last year but was coming off six straight MCs. Results through Texas Children's Houston Open (9 Tournaments): Win: -1,500Top Five: -3,375Top Ten: -775

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Chris Beard's Ole Miss: Dangerous Dog (if and when they are not favored)

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Ole Miss was a dangerous underdog in one of the three showdowns between the SEC and the Big Ten in the Sweet Sixteen. Florida made a strong case that the SEC is the superior conference with their 16-point victory against Maryland in a Sweet Sixteen game played the night before. The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game. What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays. Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line. Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle. The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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Nate Oats' Commitment to The Analytics Lowers Alabama's Potential Once Again

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Alabama’s Nate Oats is a fine head coach. From his four seasons with Buffalo to now six years with the Crimson Tide, he has demonstrated that a commitment to the foundational elements of the contributions from the analytical community can raise the floor regarding expectations of success for a basketball team. But I worry that a rigid devotion to these principles can also impose a ceiling regarding regarding what a basketball team can achieve. The case in point is Alabama’s Elite Eight encounter with Duke this season. The Crimson’s style under Oats has been consistent. On offense, his teams play fast and take almost half of their shots from behind the arc. On defense, his teams defend the perimeter and attempt to protect the rim. This approach is gospel to the analytics community, who never tire of lecturing the world that three points are more than two points and shots at the rim are higher percentage than midrange jump shots inside the arc. They get paid for such insight, which is one of the many reasons I mock many of these folks across all sports as invoking The Analytics. We get it. Not sure if this revelation reinvented the wheel as much as the price for the information. And, as Mike D’Antoni can attest, it is far from certain that simply reading The Big Book of Analytics (written but never updated in 2016) produces championships.  The Crimson Tide defense continues to be their weak link. On paper, they looked good by ranking 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Oats’ commitment to The Analytics means he wants to take away their opponent's shots from behind the arc and at the rim — but that leaves the midrange open. The Analytics say that leaves lower-percentage 2-point shots to their opponent — but that does not mean really good players still don’t make these shots at high efficiency. Alabama gets exposed by runners and floaters attacking the basket. Flagg should dominate down low. This defensive approach also allowed their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their missed shots, which ranks 161st in the nation heading into their showdown with the Blue Devils — and Duke ranks 50th in the nation by rebounding 34.3% of their misses. Breaking the Tide’s defensive numbers down, while they ranked 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummeted to 49th in that category when playing on the road where they are surrendering +6.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions. Against the top 50 statistical teams in the nation in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency, they ranked 55th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is very telling because their drop-off is even more pronounced than other teams. The margin for error with the Tide’s 3-point shooting is just so thin. They had surrendered 80 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games before their Elite Eight game with Duke — and six of their last 12 opponents have scored at least 88 points. Alabama had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em in the last three seasons under Oats, including both games when they were getting 6.5 to 12 points as the underdog.When Alabama loses, it is usually by big margins because their defensive style of play gets exposed by elite offensive teams. Florida blasted them by a 104-82 score in the SEC Tournament. Five of the Crimson Tide’s eight losses — to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Purdue, and the Gators — were by nine or more points. And against Duke in the Elite Eight this year, they got blasted by an 85-65 score. The Blue Devils made 30 of their 57 (52.6%) shots — including 24 of their 43 shots from inside the arc. When opponents are scoring 48 points on 55.8% shooting from their 2-point shots before 3-point shooting and free throws, it will be very tough for Oats and The Analytics to overcome it. Best of luck — Frank.

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My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

One of the tools in my proverbial toolbox when handicapping college basketball over/unders is Defensive Opponent Possession Average. This metric took on a starring role for the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament between Tennessee and Houston — and it helped me determine that the situation would be my 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year.The Volunteers and Cougars ranked 351st and 354th out of the 364 teams in Division I, with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. For comparison's sake, the average possession length in Division I is 17.6 seconds. What does this mean, in practice? I see two distinct ramifications regarding shot quality. First, teams who shoot earlier in the shot clock tend to do so because they were able to generate a good shooting opportunity. Teams with longer opponents' average possession length are not giving up quality looks early in the shot clock. Second, the closer the team with the basketball gets to a shot clock violation, the more likely they are to force up a bad shot. So, Tennessee and Houston are two of the best teams in the nation when it comes to coaxing their opponents to take their first shot at the rim later in the shot clock. This helps Under plays for two reasons: (1) The longer a possession, the fewer overall possessions in a game. (2) The quality of the shots tend be worse if a team is taking longer to take a shot because of the play of the defense. But just like with any other angle, I would not endorse an Under play simply because it involved two teams with impressive numbers with this metric. To a certain extent, the number already takes this dynamic into account since it is represented by the team’s defensive efficiency numbers. I am most effective when taking multiple different perspectives into account to come to a conclusion. In the case of Tennessee versus Houston, there were several important factors and pieces of evidence that led me to bet and endorse the Under, despite the Total being set in the low 120s.Tennessee allowed the Kentucky Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in their previous game in the Sweet 16, which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting, which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc, which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row, which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee was once again an elite defensive team that ranked third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also ranked fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They presented a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they led the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc going into that game. But that mark did decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers had an elite perimeter defense that ranked second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranked 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they were scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers had played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who were making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They had played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They had played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games, including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers had played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Purdue Boilermakers in their victory in the Sweet 16. That effort continued a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts was perhaps not back to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cougars are the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They ranked 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they ranked second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They were holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting, which was resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee had only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also had an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play. The Volunteers ranked 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number did speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stopping the opponent’s offensive rebounding. But those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston had played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They had played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they had played 13 of these games Under the Total.If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. These are the reasons why Hollywood Sports was on the Under with a strong 25* endorsement — which we won with the Cougars’ 69-50 victory. Best of luck — Frank.

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Auburn is a Chameleon When It Comes to Tempo

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

The Auburn Tigers are a chameleon when it comes to tempo. Head coach Bruce Pearl wants his team to be comfortable playing in track meets and in slow slogs. In their Sweet Sixteen game, Michigan head coach Dusty May wanted the Wolverines to play quickly in their showdown with the Tigers, and Pearl was happy to oblige. Auburn rallied from a 48-39 deficit in the second half to win by a 78-65 score in a game that finished far below the 155.5 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. Yet the low score had everything to do with poor shooting than a slow pace, as the 75 possessions in that game were the second most in regulation time the Tigers experienced all season. The lone exception was the 78 possessions in Auburn’s game against Alabama in February, and the Crimson Tide played at the fastest pace in the country. The Tigers only shot 39.4% from the field in the win, yet they tightened things up on defense by holding the Wolverines to 35.6% shooting. After that game, Auburn’s opponents were scoring 69.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting, and their last five opponents after that game were averaging only 65.0 points per game on 39.8% shooting. They ranked eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Yet the Tigers have played low-scoring games at slower paces as well this season. Division I college basketball games average 67.4 possessions per game. Tennessee was one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, whose games average 63.6 possessions per game. In their first game against the Volunteers, they won in a very low-scoring game, 53-51, with 63 possessions for both teams. In the rematch in the SEC tournament, the shooting was better for both sides yet only 135 combined points were scored in Tennessee’s 70-65 victory, where there was one less possession for each team at 62. Auburn was willing to play at South Carolina’s preferred slow pace in conference play as well. The Gamecocks play at the 287th slowest pace in the country, and the Tigers beat them, 66-63, with 60 possessions. In their second game of the season against Houston, whose average of 61.6 possessions per game is also the lowest in the country, Auburn won, 74-68, in a game with 62 possessions played.What would the pace of play be for the Tigers’ Elite Eight showdown with Michigan State? The Spartans were playing at the national average when it comes to pace at 67.4 possessions per game. Yet in the Spartans' 11-2 run to the under in their last thirteen games, they had seen their possession average drop to 66.8 per game, ranking 207th in the country. In their ten games away from the Breslin Center against opponents who rank in the top fifty in the country in net efficiency, the possessions per game mark lower to 65.7, ranking 272nd in the country. An old-school coach like Tom Izzo’s instinct is to slow the game down when playing an opponent who may have better talent. In their previous two games in this tournament against New Mexico and Mississippi, there were 65 and 64 possessions. He wants a slow tempo, and Pearl usually obliges. The Spartans had played six of their last seven games under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had played five straight unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. They had played fourteen of their last seventeen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Four of those five unders in that point total range were played on a neutral court. Auburn had played fifteen of their last twenty-two games under the number when playing for the second time in three days. They had played five of their last eight games in the NCAA tournament under the total with Pearl as their head coach. Michigan State was one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. They held Ole Miss to 40.6% shooting in their win in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers held their opponents to 40.8% shooting before the Elite Eight, and the Spartans had played twelve of their last fifteen games under the total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower.Both of these squads are great rebounding teams, and the battle of the boards should contribute to slowing their Elite Eight game down. Auburn averaged 35 rebounds and limited their opponents to 29 rebounds, and Michigan State had played ten of their last eleven games under the number against opponents with a +4.0 or higher net rebounding margin. The Tigers won the game, 70-64, to advance to the Final Four. Auburn only shot 43% from the field in the victory, yet they held the Spartans made 34% of their shots. Yet, Izzo got the pace of play he preferred, as there were 67 mutual possessions in the game. Sure enough, the 134 combined points scored were below the total of 147.5 installed by the oddsmakers. Good luck - TDG.

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Copa Libertadores Group Betting (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Only 1 club can lift the trophy in the end, but there are plenty of ways to bet this competition and lots of value to be found in the group stage alone. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see which clubs have the best chance of topping their groups in the group stage and which clubs have value to qualify for the knockout rounds.  Group Winner Group A: Group A is the group consisting of Botafogo -125, Estudiantes +137, Universidad de Chile +700, and Carabobo +10000. Botafogo is the favorite to win this group and for good reason as they are the defending champions of the competition. They did not win their group last season, but they went on to win the whole tournament and there is going to be a heavy focus on defending their title in this group stage. They are in a weaker group this year with 1 club from Argentina, 1 club from Chile, and 1 club from Venezuela, and none of those clubs have been dominating their respective domestic leagues either. Botafogo still has a lot of the quality and depth that won them the competition last season and they should have no problem topping this group as the defending champions so this is a good price for them. Botafogo to win Group A at -125. Group B: Group B is the group consisting of River Plate -188, Independiente del Valle +400, Barcelona Guayaquil +450, and Universitario de Deportes +1200. River Plate is the big favorite in this group, but that is more due to name value. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in Argentina and they have the money to put out a competitive team each year, but they have not been dominating their domestic league in recent years and have also struggled in this competition. They did dominate their group last season, but they also played in a very weak group and ended up fizzling out of the competition in the knockouts. They do not have a strong attack this season as they have struggled to score goals, and that will be a problem in this group with some teams that can score. They also struggle a lot more away from home and they will have to deal with some altitude playing in this group. Independiente del Valle and Barcelona Guayaquil both finished 3rd in their respective groups last season, but both have been dominant teams in Ecuador the last few years and they have experience playing in this competition. If another team not named River Plate is going to win this group, it will be one of those two, and Barcelona Guayaquil is the better of the 2 in their current states. Barcelona Guayaquil also has a much better attack and they will be able to score their way out of trouble in this group, also helping with their goal differential if the group becomes tight in the end. Barcelona Guayaquil to win Group B at +450. Group E: Group E is the group consisting of Racing Club +120, Fortaleza +187, Colo Colo +300, and Atletico Bucaramanga +1600. Racing Club is the favorite to win this group as they are the Copa Sudamericana champions from last season and even won the CONMEBOL Recopa, but they have not been in good form since winning Copa Sudamericana last season and they do not match up as well in this competition. Fortaleza was also a team that was in Copa Sudamericana last season and even though they did not win the competition, they also dominated their group in the group stage. Racing Club is only the favorite due to being the Copa Sudamericana champion, but they are not the strongest team in this group. Fortaleza plays in a much stronger league in the Brasileirao and they had to earn this spot in Copa Libertadores, finishing 4th place in the league last season. They have also been in great form in the Cearense and won their 1st match of the Brasileirao so that great start is going to carry over into this competition and it will hurt Racing Club who has not been in great form recently and is still feeling the hangover of winning last year. Fortaleza to win Group E at +187. Group F: Group F is the group consisting of Internacional -106, Bahia +200, Atletico Nacional Medellin +500, and Nacional de Football +900. Internacional is the favorite to win this group and they are the strongest team in the group. They play in the toughest league and do have Bahia in the group who also plays in the Brasileirao with them. Internacional and Bahia are going to be the top 2 teams in this group as they both have a lot more quality and depth than the other 2 teams in the group. Both have also been in great form to start the season, but Internacional has the better team and they have a team that compete for the Copa Libertadores Title this season. Bahia has a lot of quality and has been in great form recently, but they also had to play their way into this group stage in the qualifying rounds and they have had to play a lot more matches than Internacional. That is going to take a toll on them down the road as they do not have the depth that a team like Internacional has, and Internacional has more quality in their depth as well. Internacional is going to be a threat in this competition this year so there is some good value in them winning their group. Internacional to win Group F at -106. Group Qualification Group B: One team that has a lot of value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Barcelona Guayaquil at +110. Barcelona Guayaquil was already mentioned earlier as a possible group winner so this bet also has a lot of value for the same reasons. If Barcelona Guayaquil does not end up winning their group, they should be good enough for a 2nd place finish. Barcelona Guayaquil to qualify at +110. Group F: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bahia at -150. Bahia has been in very good form to start the season and this is a team that has been on the upward trend going back to last season. They are in a group with another Brasilian club, but they also have 2 weaker clubs in the group who they should have no trouble beating. Bahia has a very good defense that will be able to carry them through this group stage, but they are also very dangerous with their attack and will make the most of their home matches in the group. Bahia is a top 2 team in this group and they have the quality to get past the group stage. Bahia to qualify at -150. Group G: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bolivar at +100. Bolivar is in the same group as Palmeiras who is the favorite to win it so it is very likely that there will only be 1 spot up for grabs in this group once Palmeiras is accounted for. Bolivar has a very good chance at finishing in 2nd place though as they have one of the better teams in all of Bolivia and they also have a lot of experience in this competition. They dominate their domestic league so they usually end up in the group stage of Copa Libertadores, and last season they even won their group despite having Flamengo in it. Bolivar has more quality than the other 2 teams in the group, but they also have a big advantage at home that makes it very difficult for opposing teams to steal points from them. Bolivar plays in La Paz which is one of the highest places in all of South America so opposing teams tend to struggle a lot due to the altitude. The experience that Bolivar has in this competition along with the altitude they play at gives them a very good chance to be that team that finishes 2nd place in the group. Bolivar to qualify at +100.

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Copa Libertadores Futures (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Copa Libertadores Trophy this season.  To Win Outright Flamengo +400: Flamengo is coming into this season with the best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is always a big favorite in this competition as one of the biggest clubs in all of Brasil. The last time they won this competition was back in 2022, and they have won the trophy twice in the last 6 years as well as being a runner up in 2021. Flamengo always has a lot of quality in their squad, but they have added a few more quality players for this season and now have a lot of depth to lean on as well. They are going to need that depth to make a deep run in this competition, and they will be helped by the fact that they are in a weaker group that they should dominate. They have also been in great form as they dominated the Carioca and won it all by beating Fluminense in the Final. Copa Libertadores is always a big focus for this team and after falling short the last 2 seasons, they will be more focused on making a deep run this year. Flamengo has the quality and the depth to win it all this year, and they are by far the most talented team in the competition coming into this season. Flamengo has some value at this price to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +450: Palmeiras is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is always a big threat in this competition as they are one of the biggest clubs in Brasil and always have one of the best squads, similar to Flamengo. Palmeiras has been very good in this competition over the years as well, winning twice in the last 5 years as they won it B2B in 2020 and 2021. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad as they have brought in lots of talent from both European and South American clubs. Palmeiras is always going to be a big threat in this competition with the money they spend and this competition is always going to be a focus for them as well. They are not coming into the competition in great form though as they did lose in the Final of the Paulista Serie A1 to Corinthians. They should be able to finish atop their group in the group stage and there are not many teams that can give them trouble, but they did struggle to win matches quite a bit against Brasileirao clubs in the Paulista Serie A1 and those draws will hurt them as they get deeper into the competition, leaving matches up to chance with penalties. Palmeiras is a very good team and there are not many teams that can beat them, but there are some teams that they struggle to beat and eventually they will run into one that gets the better of them. There is not a lot of value in Palmeiras at this price since there are better options for teams to win the tournament.  Botafogo +650: Botafogo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is the defending champion of this competition as they beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 in the Final last season, but they have not been in great form since winning the competition. They lost some of that talent that took them so far and they have lost every trophy they have played for since then. They lost 3-0 to Pachuca in their 1st game of the FIFA Club World Cup, lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the Supercopa do Brasil, and they lost 4-0 on aggregate to Copa Sudamericana champions Racing Club in the CONMEBOL Recopa. They were not in great form in the Carioca either, failing to even make the playoffs. Botafogo has been very dominant in Brasil over the last 2 seasons, but only 2 clubs have been able to repeat the Copa Libertadores Title in the last 9 years and both of those clubs are the 2 biggest in Brasil, Flamengo and Palmeiras, so it is unlikely that Botafogo repeats this season. The still have the quality as well as the depth and experience to make a deep run, but they also won the Brasileirao last season so they have a major target on their back this year and will get the best effort of every team they play. Botafogo had a special season last year, but they are unlikely to repeat that and eventually they will run into a better team that gets the better of them in this competition as they have struggled in meaningful competitions since winning the Copa Libertadores Title. There is no real value in Botafogo to repeat as champions at this price.  River Plate +800: River Plate is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina and they are the last non-Brasilian team to win this competition, beating Boca Juniors back in the 2018 Final. River Plate is also 4th on the all-time list with 4 Copa Libertadores Titles which is more than any single Brasilian club, but the competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs the last 6 years and that does not look to be changing any time soon. River Plate has been very disappointing in this competition over the last few years, and they have not even been that dominant in their own domestic league either. They do have a lot of quality in their squad as well as a lot of depth, but a lot of that is in the midfield and on defense. They have a very good defense that does not allow many goals and that will take them far in this competition, but they also have a very weak attack that is going to be a big problem the deeper they go. They are not off to a great start this season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. River Plate is also in a very difficult group with 3 teams from weaker leagues, but those 3 teams are some of the best in their respective leagues and will not go down easily in the group. River Plate needs to make a lot of improvements, specifically with their attack, if they want to be a real contender in this competition. In their current state, this is not a team that can win this competition so there is no real value in River Plate at this price.  Racing Club +850: Racing Club is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club is the current Copa Sudamericana champion from last season and they also won the CONMEBOL Recopa over Botafogo, 4-0 on aggregate. They do not have a lot of experience playing in this specific competition though, and they only have 1 Copa Libertadores Title in their club history. They have not been in good form to start the new season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. They are dominating the way they did last season, and they have struggled a lot more away from home which is going to be a problem in this group stage. Their group is not a slam dunk win for them as they have 2 quality teams, 1 from Brasil and 1 from Chile, who both know how to make runs in this competition. They do not have the quality that they had in their squad last season either. Part of the reason they won Copa Sudamericana last season is because they were playing against much weaker clubs who play in much weaker leagues, but now they are in the big leagues and they just do not match up well against some of the stronger teams they could face down the line. There is no real value in Racing Club to lift the trophy at this price.  São Paulo +900: São Paulo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. São Paulo is the most decorated Brasilian club in this competition with 3 Copa Libertadores Titles and 3 times runner up, but it has been a while since they won this competition. The last time they won was back in 2005 and they have not been back to the final since the very next year when they lost in the 2006 Final to Internacional. They dominated their group in the group stage last season and lost in the quarter-final to eventual champions Botafogo. They did have a surge of good play last season which got them into 6th place in the Brasileirao, but they are not a very consistent team. They are very reliant on winning matches at home and have not performed nearly as well away from home. That is going to be a big problem in this competition as they do not have the strongest attack either. They made it to the Semi-Final of the Paulista Serie A1 before losing to Palmeiras, but they did not have a great season as they did not string many wins together. Their consistency and weaker attack will come back to bite them the deeper they go into this competition. There is no real value in São Paulo to win this competition at this price.  Internacional +1000: Internacional is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Internacional has only won this competition twice in their history, winning in 2006 and in 2010. Internacional has been building a competitive team over the last few years now and really started to trend upward when they picked up Enner Valencia. Now they have made some big moves for this season and have a squad riddled with quality and depth at every position. That depth is going to be big for them to make a deep run in this competition, and they have been in great form to start the season. They dominated the Gaucho and ended up winning in the Final against Gremio. They have a very good defense that does not give up many goals, but they also have a very strong attack that can find the net as well. Internacional has put together a very good team for this season and this could finally be the year that they take a big step and start to dominate. They are going to be a big threat in this competition this year with the quality and the depth they have. Internacional has a lot of value here as a dark horse to win this competition.  RecommendationCopa Libertadores is the most desired competition in South America for these clubs to win, but only a few clubs actually have the quality and the depth to make a run and win it all. The competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last 6 years and that is unlikely to change this year with the current landscape, but there has been a different winner each of the last 4 years so that does open the door for some of these other Brasilian clubs. Flamengo is still the best team in the competition coming into this season and they are going to have the hunger to do well so there is some value in Flamengo at +400 to win it all, but Internacional could be a sneaky dominant team in all competitions this season so there is a lot of value in Internacional at +1000 to win this competition as a dark horse. Flamengo at +400 and Internacional at +1000 are the 2 best options to go with.

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