The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be very similar to the ones run in the last three years with one big exception: Six-time winning trainer Bob Baffert will be back. The 72-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner -- suspended after a doping violation in the 2021 Derby -- will have two horses in the big event, scheduled to go as race 12 on Saturday at approximately 6:57 pm. But in addition to Baffert, there are some interesting story lines which we will discuss by previewing several of the favorites and longshots: #8 Journalism - This Mike McCarthy-trained son of Curlin should be a deserving favorite come post time. Journalism ships in from California where he beat a number of Bob Baffert Derby hopefuls, including the two Baffert runners that are in this race. And although Journalism hasn't run outside of the Golden State, McCarthy has previously shown that he can ship across the country and still have his runners in peak form. In addition, the speed in this race is almost all to the inside of his #8 post and that should also help him as he comes with his late kick after the speed has mostly collapsed. There are three knocks against him however 1) he has been running against very small fields in California, so no telling how he'll do with 19 other horses to deal with, 2) Jockey Umberto Rispoli is a relative newcomer to North American dirt racing, and 3) Journalism won his last race and that hasn't bode well in the Derby in recent years. His morning line is 3-1 but you probably won't get that come post time making him a win bet that you might want to avoid. #17 Sandman - Here is a runner that seems to be improving at the right time and may fire his best shot on Saturday. This son of leading sire Tapit won a major prep race last time out -- the Arkansas Derby -- with a strong late kick that could serve him well in the Derby. He is trained by a leading conditioner in Mark Casse and will be piloted by one of the top jockeys in Jose Ortiz. But other than that Ark Derby score, Sandman has run in four other Graded Stakes -- two as a 2YO and two this year -- and couldn't win any of them, and in fact was beaten by several of the horses he is running against today. And since he won his last race, he could be due for a letdown as we've seen the pattern go in the last five runnings of this race. One more reason to perhaps fade this one: He is partly owned by a major social media influencer -- Griffin Johnson who has over 10 million followers on TikTok -- and this will, for no other reason, drive down his price from his 6-1 morning line. #1 Citizen Bull and #4 Rodriguez - These are the two Baffert runners in the race and not only do they share the same trainer, but they are also owned by the exact same groups. As is the case with most Baffert runners, both of these horses have a ton of early speed. But since the ownership and trainer are the same, the connections of Citizen Bull and Rodriguez will likely not let their two horses get into a speed duel with one another. Since Citizen Bull has the dreaded #1 post position (no horse has won the Derby from there since Ferdinand in 1986) he is the one that will likely gun it and go straight to the front. Citizen Bull has won each of his four races with that tactic and when he doesn't get to the front early, he doesn't win. He won the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November but that doesn't usually bode well in the Derby either. It's highly unlikely that he can get to the front and stay there for the entire 1 1/4 miles. Rodriguez perhaps offers a more compelling option. If the son of Authentic can stalk the early runners from his #4 post position without getting into trouble, then he just might have the talent to get a jump on the closers as they turn for home. And his rider, Mike Smith, is one of the best ever and can still get it done even though he is approaching 60 years in age. At 12-1, Rodriguez looks like a live longshot. #18 Sovereignty - This Bill Mott-trained son of Into Mischief seems to check a lot of boxes. He was flying home late in the Florida Derby, finishing second to winner Tappan Street who had to pull out of the Derby after suffering a training injury. The 18 post should suit this horse just fine as he should be able to stay out of trouble while all of the inside speed horses fight for position going into the first turn. The faster the early fractions, the better it is for Sovereignty, whose owners are Godolphin Racing. Godolphin has won just about everything in horse racing -- all over the world -- but the one big prize that has eluded them is the Kentucky Derby. Mott's regular #1 dirt rider, Junior Alvarado, will be on board and although he is a veteran of many racing victories, he has never won any of the three "Classics" (KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont) and is considered a notch below the best riders in the country. Sovereignty will likely be no worse than the third betting favorite. #6 Admire Daytona and #7 Luxor Cafe - Japanese entrants in the Derby are becoming an annual occurrence, and this year the two runners from the land of the Rising Sun are right next to each other in the starting gate. Try as they might, a Japanese horse has never won America's most famous race although last year an outstanding 3YO named Forever Young came very close, finishing 3rd by a head. Both of these runners are talented, but not likely as good as Forever Young -- who has gone on to win eight of 11 career races -- so neither of these two will likely be among the favorites. But if you must bet on a Japanese horse this Saturday, you're probably better off with #7, Luxor Cafe, as he has beaten Admire Daytona head-to-head on two occasions. He's 15-1 morning line and you might just get that come post time. #14 Tiztastic - This son of Tiz the Law would be considered a rank outsider in this race if it weren't for his performance in the Louisiana Derby last time out. After some lackluster performances to begin 2025, often losing to other horses who are in here, Tiztastic exploded down the stretch in Louisiana in what was by far his most dominant race beating nine other runners. The victory also resulted in what was by far his highest speed figure which could mean that Tiztastic is due for a bounce, or setback on Saturday. Also, he is trained by Steve Asmussen which is good and bad. Good because nobody has won more races in North America than the 59-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner but bad because no trainer has a worse record in the Kentucky Derby (0 for 36).
Read more
