Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/26/2025

Saturday, Apr 26, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with four games. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Miami to play the Heat on TNT at 1:05 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 213 (all odds from DraftKings). The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Memphis against the Grizzlies on TNT at 3:35 p.m. ET as a 15-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Denver Nuggets on TNT at 6:05 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 212.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Houston Rockets on ABC at 8:35 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 203.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games broadcast on TBS/TruTV/Max on its slate. The Florida Panthers are home against the Tampa Bay Lightning at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Minnesota to play the Wild at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche host the Dallas Stars at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 17 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games that are both the opening games of doubleheaders throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox visit the Cleveland Guardians as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers are home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Angels at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cincinnati Reds play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Four MLB games start at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Athletics are home against the Chicago White Sox as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets are in Washington to take on the Nationals as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two games are featured on Fox’s regional afternoon coverage. The San Francisco Giants host the Texas Rangers as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Chicago to play the Cubs with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite. Both doubleheaders begin their nightcaps at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Orioles play on the road against the Tigers. The Guardians play at home against the Red Sox. The Houston Astros play in Kansas City on FS1 at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the Atlanta Braves at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -270 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Miami Marlins at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League kicks off with five matches. Chelsea hosts Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Four more matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Brighton and Hove Albion plays at home against West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Newcastle United is home against Ipswich Town on the USA Network as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Fulham are at Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton hosts Leicester City as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

Betting the Zig-Zag Theory in the NBA Playoffs

by Wayne Root

Friday, Apr 25, 2025

WHAT IS THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY?For those of you who haven’t heard of the zig-zag theory before, we wouldn’t blame you thinking it’s some kind of wacky back and forth strategy for placing bets.We promise, there’s way more to it than that on this page.If you’re a follower of the NBA or NHL, especially betting on these leagues, chances are you’ve come across the zig-zag theory before. This betting strategy is typically applied to basketball and hockey because they both employ a similar playoff format.The basic idea is that the team coming off a loss is more likely to cover the spread in the next game. Not only are they more motivated after losing, sportsbooks also adjust the odds in their favor for the next game.HOW DOES THE ZIG-ZAG THEORY WORK?In a nutshell, the zig-zag theory suggests that when a team loses a game, you should bet on them to cover the spread in the game directly after. Banking on a team bouncing back from a loss is an important part of the theory, but it aims to go deeper than that. It also takes into account which team is home and which is away and the travel necessary during the playoffs.The zig-zag theory is mostly applied to betting on the NBA and NHL because both leagues have the same playoff format. Players in the NBA and NHL are forced to travel more with the longer 2-2-1-1-1 format for the playoffs. With the amount of travel required for playoff teams in these leagues, the zig-zag theory is especially relevant.HOME ADVANTAGE IN ZIG-ZAG THEORYAt first glance, you might be wondering how the home advantage factors into zig-zag betting theory. Is it simply the home team having the advantage by being on the home court?The zig-zag theory aims to go deeper than that and it boils down to a mix between home-court advantage and momentum in the series. There are different ways of applying this theory depending on how a certain team is doing in a series matchup.Let’s look at some common scenarios to see how you can use the zig-zag theory to help choose the winning team.SERIES MOMENTUMThis one comes with a big caveat, especially after we went over some of the most likely odds for a team coming off of a loss early in the series.Momentum is a funny thing. Take our above stat, with lower-seeded teams winning 75% of the time at home after losing two straight games.Momentum is definitely a factor and it’s worth also considering how a team lost and how that affects the momentum. Does a blowout loss shake up a team so badly you can’t even imagine them winning the next game? Was a close loss, perhaps from a blown lead, demoralizing enough that taking the losing team to win the next game seems foolish?The bottom line is that you should look at the numbers and stats in a series first, but also consider the less cut and dry factors that can come into FACTORS TO LOOK FOR WHEN BETTING ZIG-ZAG THEORYKeep an eye out for these special circumstances and you might discover a profitable spot to use the zig-zag theory:Home Team Goes Up 1-0This is a scenario that happens approximately 53% of the time in the NBA and NHL combined. Statistics in the NBA show that if the home team wins Game 1, they have a 65% chance of winning the series.In the NHL, those odds shoot up all the way to 76%, with the most likely outcome there being that the home team wins the series in six games.If the home team goes up 1-0 it’s a great opportunity to bet on the losing team in the next game.Home Team Goes Up 2-0Betting the underdog on this third game is one of the most common ways that bettors play the zig-zag theory. The underlying strategy is that after the lower-seeded team loses the first two games on the road, they will play their hearts out in Game 3, on home ice, when the series is still within reach.Between the NBA and the NHL, the lower-seeded team ends up winning nearly 60% of the time when they go back home after losing the first two games. In a world where many of the odds are near 50%, placing a bet knowing that the historical odds are near 60% is a huge advantage.Home Team Loses First GameOf course, the home team doesn’t always win their opening game at home. When the lower-seeded team is able to win that first game, placing bets on the higher-seeded team to bounce back in Game 2 is usually a shrewd move.While momentum is a funny and sometimes unpredictable thing, odds are that the home team plays a better game on home ice in Game 2. Rough odds suggest that higher-seeded teams in the NHL and NBA teams win 75% of the time in Game 2 when they’re coming off of a loss.INJURIES CAN INFLUENCE POINT SPREAD AND THIS THEORY Google can save your life on this one if you haven’t been paying attention.This is something you MUST look into before placing your bets. If you aren’t fully immersed in the sport you’re betting on or haven’t been paying close attention, a quick Google search of a team’s injury report can save you lots of money if you do it before making a bet.In sports, injuries happen. That’s especially true in a physical league like the NHL. Make sure you’re looking in the injury reports for both teams to see if it’s significant to your bets.

NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

The NBA Playoffs are underway, with the top three teams (Thunder, Cavaliers, Celtics) all sprinting out to 2-0 series leads. The other five series have been more competitive, with all but one (Pacers/Bucks) sitting at 1-game-apiece.My preseason pick this season was on the Celtics to repeat as champions, and they're the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston opened its 7-game series with a 103-86 win over Orlando (as a 12.5-point home favorite), and then followed that up with a 109-100 victory (as a 10.5-point home favorite).Boston failed to cover the point spread in its Game 2 triumph, and that leads us into this week's NBA Playoff system.What we want to do is play on any defending NBA champion on the road after failing to cover the spread in a home playoff game.Since 1991, our system has gone 46-17, 73% ATS.The Celtics have been installed as a 5.5-point road favorite in Game 3, on Friday.Consider laying the points.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/24/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with three games. The New York Knicks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on TNT at 7:05 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 213.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Memphis against the Grizzlies on TNT at 9:35 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Denver Nuggets on NBA TV at 10:05 p.m. ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 213.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games on its slate. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Florida Panthers on TBS/truTV/Max at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on ESPN2 as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Minnesota to take on the Minnesota Wild on TBS/truTV/Max at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit St. Louis to play the Blues on ESPN2 at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Major League Baseball has nine games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Twins tap Chris Paddack to pitch against the White Sox’s Shane Smith. Minnesota is a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 1:35 p.m. ET. Garrett Crochet takes the ball for the Red Sox to battle Bryan Woo for the Mariners. Boston is a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Kansas City Royals are home against the Colorado Rockies in the first game of their doubleheader at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Royals send out Cole Ragans to face the Rockies’ German Marquez. Kansas City is a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers at 3:45 p.m. ET. Landen Roupp takes the ball for the Giants to challenge Tobias Myers for the Brewers. San Francisco is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The second game of the Rockies/Royals doubleheader starts at 5:40 p.m. ET. The Rockies turn to Chase Dollander to pitch against the Royals’ Michael Lorenzen. The Washington Nationals play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 6:45 p.m. ET. Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals to take on Cade Povich for the Orioles. Washington is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Angels are home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:29 p.m. ET. The Angels send out Tyler Anderson to go against the Pirates’ Carmen Mlodzinski. Los Angeles is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays at 9:40 p.m. ET. Corbin Burnes takes the hill for the Diamondbacks to pitch against Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Arizona is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Texas Rangers play on the road against the Athletics at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.

2025 WNBA Preview: Western Conference

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025

With the 2025 WNBA season set to tip off in May, here's a quick preview of each Western Conference team, including their current championship odds as provided by Draft Kings. Las Vegas Aces The Las Vegas Aces, two-time champions in 2022 and 2023, are poised for a strong comeback in 2025 and priced accordingly with +350 odds to win the WNBA title. Their core, led by A'ja Wilson, remains intact, and the addition of six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd via a three-team trade with Seattle adds significant firepower to their roster. The Aces also bolstered their bench by acquiring Dana Evans from Chicago and signing Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, aiming to address depth issues that hampered them in the previous season. Despite these strategic moves, the departure of Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks leaves a void in their backcourt. However, with Wilson's leadership and the new additions, the Aces are expected to remain top contenders in the Western Conference. Their offseason adjustments reflect a commitment to reclaiming their championship status. Minnesota Lynx The Minnesota Lynx are entering the 2025 season with a sense of urgency and sit just behind the Aces as far as championship odds go at +380. After a surprising run to the WNBA Finals in 2024, they aim to capitalize on their current roster before potential changes in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. Key players like Napheesa Collier and Courtney Williams are central to their success, and the team has made minor additions, including Marième Badiane and Grace Berger, to strengthen their lineup. With most of their core players on contracts expiring after this season, the Lynx view 2025 as a pivotal year. Their focus will be on maintaining team cohesion and building upon last season's momentum. If they can replicate their previous performance, the Lynx could be strong contenders for the championship. Phoenix Mercury The Phoenix Mercury have undergone significant changes in the offseason, most notably with the acquisition of Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun. Thomas, known for her versatility and leadership, is expected to have a substantial impact on the team's performance. Her addition aims to revitalize the Mercury's roster and improve their competitiveness in the Western Conference. Veteran Satou Sabally also joins the squad by way of Dallas. The Mercury's championship odds stand at +1400 and the integration of Thomas and Sabally into the team dynamics will be crucial. If they can effectively mesh with the existing roster and elevate the team's play in short order, Phoenix could exceed expectations and emerge as a contender in 2025. Los Angeles Sparks The Los Angeles Sparks have made notable moves in the offseason, including acquiring Kelsey Plum from the Las Vegas Aces. Plum's addition brings a new level of offensive prowess to the team. Alongside her, the Sparks have added Mercedes Russell and Australian import Shaneice Swain, aiming to bolster their roster depth.Under the guidance of new head coach Lynne Roberts following Curt Miller's exit, the Sparks are focusing on integrating these new talents and developing team chemistry. While their championship odds are currently at +5000, the team's success will largely depend on how quickly the new players adapt and contribute to overall team performance. Seattle Storm The Seattle Storm are in a rebuilding phase, highlighted by the departure of Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces. This significant change marks a new era for the team as they look to develop emerging young stars and reestablish themselves in the league. The Storm's focus will be on nurturing their youthful roster and building a cohesive unit for future success.With championship odds at +6000, the Storm are not immediate contenders. However, their commitment to developing a strong foundation could pay dividends in the coming seasons. The team's progress will be closely watched as they navigate this transitional period. Dallas Wings The Dallas Wings are looking to the future with the signing of Paige Bueckers, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. Bueckers' arrival brings excitement and potential to the franchise, as she is expected to make an immediate impact on the court. Her presence, alongside existing talents, aims to rejuvenate the Wings' performance. With their championship odds at a lofty +7500, the Wings are focusing on developing their young core and building team chemistry. The integration of Bueckers into the lineup will be a key factor in determining the team's success this season. If the young roster can gel effectively, Dallas could surprise many in the league. Golden State Valkyries As a new expansion team, the Golden State Valkyries are embarking on their inaugural season in the WNBA. Their entry into the league represents an exciting development, aiming to tap into the rich basketball culture of the Bay Area. The Valkyries are focusing on building a competitive roster through strategic acquisitions and player development with Natalie Nakase in place as the team's first head coach.Projected by most to finish last place in the WNBA this season with championship odds at +30000, expectations are obviously tempered for their first season. However, the team's long-term vision is centered on establishing a strong foundation and gradually becoming a competitive presence in the league. While there are a lot of questions to be answered, the Valkyries' progress will be an intriguing storyline to follow as they navigate the challenges of their debut season.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/23/25

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with three games. The Boston Celtics host the Orlando Magic on TNT/truTV/Max at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 199.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Miami Heat on NBA TV as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 211.5. The Houston Rockets are home against the Golden State Warriors on TNT/truTV/Max at 9:30 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 203.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with three games on its slate. The Washington Capitals host the Montreal Canadiens on ESPN as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Dallas Stars on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Kings are home against the Edmonton Oilers on TBS/Max at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals at 12:15 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Four more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to New York to play the Mets as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees play in Cleveland against the Guardians as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the San Diego Padres as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Miami Marlins are home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.Two MLB games start at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the Seattle Mariners as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. The Baltimore Orioles are in Washington to take on the Nationals as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Chicago to play the Cubs at 7:00 p.m. ET. Three MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Houston against the Astros as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Chicago White Sox as a -270 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Angels host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The San Francisco Giants are home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 9:45 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Texas Rangers travel to play the Athletics at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Matchweek 33 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. Arsenal hosts Crystal Palace on the USA Network at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

Burns' Top 5 Future Bets To Make Right Now (ASAP)

by William Burns

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

As you all know, Burns has successfully predicted plenty of sporting outcomes already (via. articles) in his time as a handicapper. Most recently he had Stephon Castle to win ROTY (at +1000) in his "5 NBA Future Bets to Make Before the Season Begins" article. He's now -1400 with the final announcement coming in the next few weeks. Here are 5 future bets to make at this time and you better hurry. These odds will change!! *Not in Order. (odds via. DraftKings Sportsbook.) 1. Toronto Maple Leafs to Win the Stanley Cup (+800) I've been saying for a while now in my analysis' of NHL selections on the Leafs that I believe that this team is capable. Canada has not brought home a Stanley Cup in the 2000's yet and this could be its best chance to do so with six Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs. Currently up 1-0 in the Battle of Ontario vs. Ottawa in the first round. Toronto is going for glory. A matchup with the winner of Florida/Tampa will be tough in the second round. But, if the Maple Leafs can keep rolling, they most definitely can win it all this year. They are my pick to win the Cup this season. 2. Golden State Warriors to Win the NBA Finals (+1500) Still a bit of a longshot, I believe that these are still the best odds in the NBA to win the finals. Golden State is up 1-0 vs. Houston in the opening round of these playoffs and has a very good shot at advancing now. With the Timberwolves up 1-0 on the Lakers, Golden State's path to the WCF could be "slightly easier" than expected. I believe the same as Jimmy Butler believes. Any team has a chance, and especially with the likes of Stephen Curry. Golden State's dynasty may not be completely done yet. Expect the Warriors to fight their hardest to get back to another NBA finals this year in 2025. 3. National League to Win the World Series (-150) As the oddsmakers and I believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers are most definitely the favorites to win the World Series once again this year, there is definitely more value on playing on the NL to win the World Series at slightly more expensive odds than just the Dodgers. Philadelphia, NYM, Atlanta, San Diego & Arizona are all teams that I expect to compete for a spot in this years postseason and any of those teams could go on a run to the World Series if they get into the postseason. I believe that this is the best bet to make in the MLB at this given moment. 4. Micah Parsons to Win DPOY (+750) Many people might think I'm crazy with this selection with Myles Garrett, TJ Watt and Aidan Hutchinson as top options to win this years Defensive Player Of The Year in the NFL. However, I believe that Micah Parsons is poised for his biggest season yet. We've already seen how talented this young edge rusher is out of Penn State and he's produced stellar numbers already. If the Cowboys stack up with more defense this year, Parsons should be able to explode even more this season and dominate the defensive side of the ball. Dallas fans should be excited. 5. Washington Commanders OVER 9.5 Wins (-125) After adding Deebo Samuel Sr to the offense this offseason, Jayden Daniels has even more reasons to take it to another level in the 2025-26 season. He's coming off an amazing rookie year and took Washington to the playoffs and beating Detroit in the first round. With the win total set at 9.5 right before the seasons starts, this is a great time to get on the Washington Commanders train I expect them to win double digit games with ease this season. The Commanders went 12-5 last year in this division and are better than last year. Give me the "over" here.

NBA Playoff Angles to Consider

by Kyle Hunter

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

The NBA playoffs are here! It’s an exciting time of the year. I personally find the NBA regular season difficult to watch, but the playoffs are fantastic. These are top end players putting out max effort, and it results in some great drama. I wanted to take a look at a few important angles/trends to consider when you are betting the NBA playoffs. First Round Unders- It’s no secret that the defensive intensity goes up a whole lot when the playoffs get started. That has led to a lot of unders in the first round of the NBA playoffs going all the way back to 2006. During that time, totals of 200.5 or higher are 249-200 (55.5% unders) on the closing line. It is important to remember that many NBA totals in the first round are bet down, so numbers on the opening line would be even more toward the under. In the Eastern Conference, first round totals of 200.5 or higher are 103-72 (58.9%) to the under during that time. First Round Non Playoff Team on the Road vs. First Round Playoff Team- This angle is betting on first round playoff teams who were not part of the NBA playoffs in the previous year. The angle fits only when they are playing against teams who were in the playoffs the previous season. Those road teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 76-53 (58.9%) ATS going back to 2011. NBA Playoffs- Fade Trendy Underdog This one is through the entire NBA playoffs. It is a fade of a trendy underdog. Betting on the home team who is receiving 40% or fewer of the spread bets: they are 123-89 (58%) ATS since 2005. If the home favorite is -6.5 or less, the number jumps to 93-62 (60% ATS). In the first three games of a playoff series, this angle jumps all the way up to 55-31 (64% ATS). Keep an eye out for games that fit these angles in the NBA playoffs. There will be plenty that match these angles. I would never blindly bet these angles, but they are great to know as part of your handicapping the NBA playoffs.

MLB Home Favorites Making Money - What Comes Next?

by Kyle Hunter

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

We are nearly a month into the MLB regular season. I wanted to take a look at the road/home splits so far. They are pretty drastic, but after we take a look at the specifics we’ll also examine if there is anything you should look for going forward.For games played through April 21st, the home team is 206-129 on the moneyline (61.5%) and bettors just blindly backing the home team in every game on the moneyline have an ROI of 9.7%. The National League home teams have been cashing at a really high rate. In the NL alone, the home team is 109-57 (65.7%) for an ROI of 16.1%. Additionally, it is has mainly been the smaller favorites on the moneyline that have really paid off for bettors so far this season. Home teams with a price of -137 or smaller are 80-46 (63.5%) for an ROI of 16.9%. How did home favorites do in the last two full seasons in Major League Baseball? In the 2023 and 2024 seasons, home favorites went 1,750-1,259 (57.9%), but bettors lost money betting all of those favorites. In fact, if you bet all the home favorites in 2023 and 2024 you had an ROI of -5.1%. On home favorites of -137 or smaller, the ROI was -3.6% in 2023 and 2024.What should you do betting going forward with the information of home favorites crushing it in baseball so far this season? You should expect regression to the mean! No one knows how soon it will come, but regression to the mean is absolutely coming. In most professional sports, the home field/court advantage has actually gotten smaller in recent years. If the market wants to start putting a premium on home teams, I would look for spots to bet those road underdogs on the moneyline.

Burns' Bulletin Board: Top 15 NFL Mock Draft

by William Burns

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

The NFL Draft is this coming Thursday and I'm more excited than anyone for this upcoming season. After successfully predicting the 2024-25 CFB Champs prior to the season in my "Way-Too-Early NCAAF Predictions & Future Bets to Make:" article (OSU at +400 to win,) I'm back with a bit of an NFL Draft guide for this years draft on the College players. Here's my; MOCK DRAFT of the 2025 NFL DRAFT and why I have them where they are. ***This is not my top 10 players across the board. This is who I think is going to be picked at what spot. (will have sleepers at the end. 1. TENNESSEE TITANS - Cam Ward (MIAMI → QB) Perhaps not the best overall player in the draft, Ward has established himself as the best QB in the draft. He's now (-20000) to be selected #1 overall via. DraftKings and I can't go against that. Tennessee badly needs a QB and Ward is the guy that the Titans should be going after if they are looking in that direction. Burns' Player Comp: Jordan Love2. CLEVELAND BROWNS - Travis Hunter (COLORADO → WR/CB) Playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, Travis Hunter is going to be a problem in the NFL if the Browns let him play both sides. He probably is the best overall prospect in this draft and the Browns would be stupid to not go him at #2 if he slips. Whoever is the QB1 for the Browns on Week 1 is going to love this new addition. Burns' Player Comp: WR = DeVonta Smith, CB = Champ Bailey 3. NEW YORK GIANTS - Abdul Carter (PENN STATE → EDGE) My favorite player in this years draft is Abdul Carter. An absolute killer off the edge, this guy will feed in NFL games. With Ward/Hunter already gone, this selection is a no brainer for NYG. Adding Carter to this already solid DLINE is going to make this Giants front four extremely dangerous in this upcoming season. Burns' Player Comp: Micah Parsons/Von Miller 4. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Will Campbell (LOUISIANA STATE → OT) A 3-year starter at Left-Tackle for LSU, Will Campbell should fit right into the New England system to protect Drake Maye's blind side. Campbell has a much smaller arm-length than most tackles in the NFL. However, if he's being selected in the first round yet alone top 15, he's should be a very good addition to a NE team that badly needs a tackle. Burns' Player Comp: Dion Dawkins 5. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Tetairoa McMillan (ARIZONA → WR) Maybe the most productive pass-catcher in the draft, McMillan will provide that size option that Trevor Lawrence is looking for. The Jags already have a stud in Brian Thomas Jr at the other WR spot. Adding McMillan to the mix with Christian Kirk in the slot could be a deadly wideout trio for Jacksonville. Burns' Player Comp: Courtland Sutton/Tee Higgins 6. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS - Shedeur Sanders (COLORADO → QB) Oakland needs a QB and this could be a perfect fit for Shedeur. Going from one great to another in father Deion Sanders to Pete Carroll, the Sanders family will be extremely excited to get to work with someone who people continue to doubt. Russell Wilson was dominant with Pete Carroll in Seattle. Sanders could just be another QB that works perfectly in Carroll's system. Burns' Player Comp: Geno Smith with upside 7. NEW YORK JETS - Mason Graham (MICHIGAN → IDL) Not much to say here other than Mason Graham is a beast. He's also got a less than average length in terms of arms, which might cause him slipping outside of the top 5 which I have. However, Graham is explosive right out of the gates and should be able to cause lots of disruption in the backfield for whoever selects him. Burns' Player Comp: Kenny Clark/Cameron Hayward 8. CAROLINA PANTHERS - Jalon Walker (GEORGIA → EDGE) What can we say about Georgia pass rushers. We've already seen Philadelphia load up on these guys in recent years and it definitely paid off with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl this past season. Jalon Walker is a guy that will fit right into any teams defense and can play both on the edge or as a linebacker. Burns' Player Comp: Leonard Floyd 9. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - Will Johnson (MICHIGAN → CB) New Orleans is searching for the next Marshon Lattimore (traded last year.) Will Johnson might just be that guy. Although he didn't play very many games last season, he was effective in each and every game that he played in. Johnson is simply a tall shutdown corner with elite athleticism. Burns' Player Comp: Jaycee Horn/Christian Gonzales (upside of Pat Surtain II) 10. CHICAGO BEARS - Mykel Williams (GEORGIA → EDGE) Another Georgia pass rusher in the top 10? You bet. Although some Mock Drafts have Mykel Williams outside of the top ten, I believe that this is a great spot for him to go off the board. Williams has more of the pass rushing build (vs. his soon to be former teammate Jalon Walker.) He's got a bit of work to do before he reaches his full potential but his relentless style of play will most definitely be something coaches are excited about. Burns' Player Comp: Travon Walker 11. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Shemar Stewart (TEXAS A&M → EDGE) Shamar Stewart seems like the type of guy Kyle Shanahan would like. Stewart was outstanding in the NFL combine and that skyrocketed his draft stock. He's a got the potential to be great and pairing him off the edge with Nick Bosa would be something to watch. He might not start early on in this already stacked SF DLine group. But, Stewart's upside is greater than most in this years draft. Burns' Player Comp: Jermaine Johnson II 12. DALLAS COWBOYS - Ashton Jeanty (BOISE STATE → RB) Yes, yes, Ashton Jeanty could most definitely go higher in the NFL Draft. However, I simply just don't believe that Runningbacks are more valuable than some of the other positions on the football field. Jeanty was dominant last year, breaking records, and has the intangibles to be great. Landing somewhere like Dallas could do him wonders. Burns' Player Comp: Frank Gore/Marshawn Lynch 13. MIAMI DOLPHINS - Jahdae Barron (TEXAS → CB) Jahdae Barron will be missed at Texas. He was the top corner on a team that took Ohio State to the final whistle. Barron is an extremely aggressive corner than had five INT's last year. He impressed very much in the combine and I expect him to fill the Jalen Ramsay role (most likely to leave this offseason) in this Dolphins team. Burns' Player Comp: Trent McDuffie 14. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Tyler Warren (PENN STATE → TE) No doubt, the best Tight-End prospect in the draft in my opinion and he's going to a place in Indianapolis that is in much need of a reliable tight end. Penn State doesn't throw the ball much. But, when the Nittany Lions did, Tyler Warren was the main focal point. His frame and work ethic is going to be something that the Colts will be looking forward to this September. Burns' Player Comp: George Kittle/Jeremy Shockey 15. ATLANTA FALCONS - Mike Green (MARSHALL → EDGE) Sleeper alert! Mike Green might have played at a small school in Marshall. However, this guy is an absolute savage. Green creates chaos in the opposing teams backfield and is going to be a nightmare for tackles in the NFL. I firmly believe that Green could outperform all of the edge's I've mentioned so far and perhaps even win ROTY at very good odds. Burns' Player Comp: Nolan Smith

NHL Playoff Series Prediction

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers First Round Series Betting Prediction (2025 NHL Playoffs) Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to Win Series (-105) The Tampa Bay Lightning are a solid bet at -105 to beat the Florida Panthers in the 2025 NHL Playoffs first round, driven by offensive depth, goaltending, and health advantages. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game (GF/GP), powered by Kucherov (121 points), Point (42 goals), and Guentzel (41 goals), while allowing 2.40 GA/GP since February 1 (sixth-fewest). Florida scored 3.00 GF/GP (15th) and allowed 2.72 GA/GP (seventh-fewest), but finished 29 goals below expected. Net Rating shows a two-goal difference, favoring Tampa’s finishing. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) outshines Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%), with a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Florida’s injury woes—Tkachuk (groin), Ekblad (suspended), and Barkov (upper-body)—contrast with Tampa’s healthy roster and 20-6-5 run since January 30. Tampa’s power play matches Florida’s (9.56 xGF/60), but their top-10 penalty kill (80.3%) gives a slight edge. Tampa performs better when Florida takes penalties (20-9-3), which could disrupt the Panthers’ disciplined style. Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending, and health make them the pick to win in six or seven games.

2025 WNBA Preview: Eastern Conference

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

With the 2025 WNBA season set to tip off in May, here's a quick preview of each Eastern Conference team, including their current championship odds as provided by Draft Kings. New York Liberty The reigning WNBA champions, the New York Liberty, enter the 2025 season as the favorites to repeat, with odds set at +220. Their core roster remains largely intact, including stars like Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. Breanna Stewart's recent re-signing was obviously a major piece of the puzzle. The Liberty's wealth of talent, depth and experience position them as strong contenders for back-to-back titles. New York's offseason moves have been relatively quiet, focusing on maintaining team chemistry and building upon its successful 2024 campaign. With a balanced roster and a mix of veteran leadership and young talent, the Liberty aim to dominate the Eastern Conference once again. Their strategic approach and proven track record make them a formidable force in the upcoming season. Connecticut Sun The Connecticut Sun face a transitional period in 2025, reflected in their championship odds of +20000. The departure of longtime star Alyssa Thomas to the Phoenix Mercury marks a significant shift for the team. In response, the Sun have brought in new talent, including sharpshooters Madison Hayes and Morgan Maly, to bolster their offensive capabilities . Despite these changes, the Sun retain a competitive roster with experienced players ready to step up. The integration of new talent will be crucial in determining their success this season. If the team can quickly establish cohesion and adapt to their new dynamics, they have the potential to surprise or at least exceed low expectations in the Eastern Conference. Indiana Fever The Indiana Fever are on an upward trajectory, with championship odds at +400. Led by rising star Caitlin Clark, the team made significant strides last season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2016. With a young and talented roster, including Aliyah Boston - the number one pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft, the Fever are poised to build upon their recent success. The team's focus will be on developing their young core and enhancing team chemistry. If Clark and Boston continue to evolve and lead effectively, Indiana could emerge as a formidable force in the league. Their youthful energy and potential make them an exciting team to watch in the 2025 campaign. Atlanta Dream The Atlanta Dream have made a significant offseason move by signing two-time WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Brittney Griner, boosting their championship odds to +5000. Griner's addition brings veteran experience and defensive prowess to a team that already features talents like Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray. The Dream aim to improve upon their previous season's performance, where they secured a playoff spot as the No. 8 seed. With Griner anchoring the defense and providing leadership, Atlanta has the potential to climb the standings in the Eastern Conference. Their success will depend on how quickly the team can integrate Griner and develop on-court chemistry. Chicago Sky The Chicago Sky are in a rebuilding phase, reflected in their championship odds of +8000. The team is focusing on developing a new core, highlighted by the drafting of Hailey Van Lith, Angel Reese, and Kamilla Cardoso. These young players bring energy and potential to a franchise looking to return to its former glory. Under new head coach Tyler Marsh, the Sky aim to foster growth and establish a strong foundation for the future. While immediate success may be challenging, the development of their young talent will be crucial for long-term competitiveness. Patience and strategic planning will be key as Chicago navigates this transitional period. Washington Mystics The Washington Mystics face a challenging season ahead, with championship odds set at +10000. The team is dealing with roster uncertainties and the need to develop young talent. Their performance will heavily depend on the progression of emerging players and the ability to establish a cohesive unit. The Mystics' focus will be on rebuilding and laying the groundwork for future success. While immediate playoff contention may be a stretch, the development of their roster and strategic acquisitions could set the stage for a more competitive team in the coming years. Monitoring the growth of their young players will be essential in assessing the team's direction.

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