Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/12/2025

Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Sunday, January 12, 2025

Venue:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  NBC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Commanders +3, Buccaneers -3; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Commanders +3, Buccaneers -3; Over/Under:  50.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Commanders +3, Buccaneers -3; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Washington Commanders:  12-5 (2nd place, NFC East)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  10-7 (1st place, NFC South)

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Washington Commanders:  won their last game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 23-19.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  won their last game at home against the New Orleans Saints 27-19.

The Commanders finished the NFL regular season with a 12-5 record overall and they were 4-2 in their divisional games. They were 7-2 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 23-19. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 6/12 passes for 38 passing yards before getting replaced by Marcus Mariota who completed 15/18 passes for 161 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Marcus Mariota led the team in rushing yards with 56 and 1 TD. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jeremy Chinn led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Jeremy Chinn and Jonathan Allen each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Buccaneers finished the NFL regular season with a 10-7 record overall and they were 4-2 in their divisional games. They were 5-4 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New Orleans Saints 27-19. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 21/32 passes for 221 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 89 and 1 TD. Mike Evans led the receivers with 89 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Josh Hayes led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while YaYa Diaby and Vita Vea each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have looked good in their games this season with their 10-7 record overall which has them leading the NFC South and in the 3rd seed in the NFC. They are coming off a win over the Saints last week in a game that they needed to win to make the playoffs, but they took care of business even though they were down early and they have showed up big against some playoff type opponents this season. They have a solid offense with players like Baker Mayfield having a career season and they have wins against some of the best in the NFL this year like the Eagles and the Lions. Meanwhile, the Commanders have looked good in their games this season with their 12-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NFC East and in the 6th seed in the NFC. They are coming off a win over the Cowboys last week in a game they rested some players in and they have had a really good season with their rookie QB and Dan Quinn being in his first season as head coach. They did lose to the Buccaneers in their first game of the season though, and that game wasn't even close with a 37-20 win for the Bucs. The Commanders have improved a lot since that season opener and they even finished the regular season with the better record, but this is still an inexperienced team that wasn't expected to be this good while the Bucs won their division last season and did make a little run in the playoffs. The Commanders are good, but the Buccaneers are also good with the home advantage here and they have more playoff experience on their side to help them win this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game. 

Commanders Buccaneers Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 12, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 27 Commanders 20.

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Washington Commanders: 7-3 ATS off a road win. 9-5 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 10-4 1H ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season. 12-6 OVER as a road underdog. 10-5 OVER after playing a division game. 10-4 OVER after a win by 6 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 3-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. 5-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 5-2 OVER off 3 or more consecutive overs. 10-5 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 9-4 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more.

Washington Commanders:  Q. Martin (DB) Questionable - Illness. T. Biadasz (C) Doubtful - Ankle. C. Lucas (T) Doubtful - Groin. A. Ekeler (RB) Questionable - Concussion. K. Osborn (WR) Questionable - Illness. A. Wylie (OL) Injured - Groin. M. Lattimore (CB) Out - Hamstring. T. Owens (SAF) Out - Ankle. C. Ferrell (DE) Injured - Knee. D. Brown (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Magee (LB) Out - Hamstring. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Ankle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  P. Durham (TE) Injured - Quadricep. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Shoulder. D. Culp (TE) Injured - Ribs. J. Dean (CB) Out - Knee. S. Shepard (WR) Questionable - Hamstring. W. Gholston (DL) Questionable - Knee. T. Wirfs (T) Injured - Foot. A. Winfield (SAF) Out - Knee. C. Otton (TE) Doubtful - Knee.

“We were going to have to use the quarterback’s legs more, so it was really my decision to say, ‘Hey let’s go this route.’ It wasn’t a predetermined one.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s win against the Cowboys in their regular season finale.

“He always (puts the team first). That’s why you love him. We’re lucky to have him. He’s underappreciated throughout the media and the league. He’s one of one. He deserves that. You saw the stadium erupt. You saw the sideline erupt. You can tell how much people care about him and what that means for everybody around him.” - Baker Mayfield on Mike Evans after their win against the Saints in their regular season finale.

WR McLaurin, Terry 

WR Brown, Dyami 

WR Zaccheaus, Olamide

TE Ertz, Zach

QB Daniels, Jayden

RB Robinson Jr., Brian

WR Evans, Mike

WR McMillan, Jalen 

WR Shepard, Sterling

TE Durham, Payne

QB Mayfield, Baker

RB Irving, Bucky 

Passing: J. Daniels (3568)

Rushing: J. Daniels (891)

Receiving: T. McLaurin (1096)

Touchdowns: T. McLaurin (13)

Passing: B. Mayfield (4500)

Rushing: B. Irving (1122)

Receiving: M. Evans (1004)

Touchdowns: M. Evans (11)

Coaches:

Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (1st season)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (3rd season)