by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 16, 2024
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UVA +22.5, ND -22.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UVA +22.5, ND -22.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UVA +22.5, ND -22.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Virginia Cavaliers: 5-4 (3-3) (9th place, ACC)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8-1 (0-0) (FBS Independent)
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Recent Form
Virginia Cavaliers: won their last game on the road against the Pittsburgh Panthers 24-19.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: won their last game at home against the Florida State Seminoles 52-3.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview and Analysis
Virginia is entering this game with a 5-4 record overall and they have a 3-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Pittsburgh 24-19. Anthony Colandrea was the starting QB and he completed 16/24 passes for 143 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Xavier Brown led the team in rushing yards with 68 and 1 TD. Chris Tyree led the receivers with 42 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Kam Robinson and Terrell Jones each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Anthony Britton led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Jonas Sanker came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Notre Dame is entering this game with an 8-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 2-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Florida State 52-3. Riley Leonard was the starting QB and he completed 14/27 passes for 215 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jadarian Price led the team in rushing yards with 95 and 1 TD. Jaden Greathouse led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jack Kiser led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Rylie Mills led the defense in sacks with 3. Jordan Clark and Luke Talich each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction
The current betting odds have Notre Dame listed as a 22.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Notre Dame has looked great in their games this season with their 8-1 record overall which has them ranked as a top 10 team in the nation. Their only loss this season was against Northern Illinois at home earlier this year, but they have been rolling every team they face since that loss as it really served as a wake-up call for them. They are coming off a 52-3 win against Florida State in their last one and they have been blowing out a lot of teams in their games lately. Meanwhile, Virginia has looked good in their games this season with their 5-4 record overall, but their 3-3 conference record has them in the middle of the ACC and not really in the playoff conversation. They have looked better in their road games this season with their 3-1 road record, coming off a road win against Pittsburgh in their last one too, but that was a big win against a 1 loss Pittsburgh team at the time so this is going to be a bit of a let down spot here. Virginia has been really up and down on offense this season too and Notre Dame has a really good defense that Virginia will struggle to move the ball against. Virginia has also been giving up a ton of points in their games lately and they aren't going to stop this Notre Dame offense with the way they have been rolling lately. The best way to place a bet here is on Notre Dame to cover the spread in this game.
Virginia Notre Dame Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 16, 2024 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Notre Dame 56 Virginia 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Virginia Cavaliers: 3-9 1H ATS after playing their last game on the road. 0-3 1H ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 7-12 1H ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest. 4-1 OVER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-3 OVER vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 7-4 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 11-2 ATS against ACC opponents. 22-11 ATS in all lined games. 10-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-4 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 11-3 OVER against ACC opponents. 22-13 OVER in all lined games. 10-5 OVER as a home favorite. 10-2 OVER off a home win.
Key Injuries
Virginia Cavaliers: T. Harris (WR) Out - Knee. B. Stevens (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Hammond (DT) Out - Shoulder. J. Griese (RB) Questionable - Foot. K. Gay (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Ennis (TE) Out - Knee. E. Sipe (OL) Questionable - Foot. D. Metcalf (OL) Out - Achilles.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: H. Cross (DL) Out - Ankle. A. Knapp (OL) Questionable - Lower Body. L. Thomas (DL) Questionable - Ankle. C. Carr (QB) Questionable - Elbow. B. Morrison (CB) Out - Hip. B. Traore (DL) Out - Knee. C. Tucker (CB) Out - Knee. G. Payne (RB) Out - Knee. C. Jagusah (OL) Out - Pectoral. T. Bennie-Powell (SAF) Out - Shoulder. S. Prescod (OL) Out - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“Just super proud of how everyone responded in the program over the last two weeks. Lot of reflecting and looking in the mirror.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s win against Pitt in their last game.
“Man, (I'm) proud of those guys. Proud of the way they prepared. As you watch film, you know you’re going against a talented group, but it could have been easy to overlook those guys in terms of preparation because of the record.” - Marcus Freeman after his team’s win against FSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Virginia Cavaliers
WR Fields, Malachi
WR Harris, Trell
WR Tyree, Chris
TE Neville, Tyler
QB Colandrea, Anthony
RB Pace, Kobe
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
WR Collins, Beaux
WR Faison, Jordan
WR Greathouse, Jaden
TE Evans, Mitchell
QB Leonard, Riley
RB Love, Jeremiyah
Statistical Leaders
Virginia Cavaliers
Passing: A. Colandrea (1948)
Rushing: K. Pace (442)
Receiving: M. Fields (665)
Touchdowns: G. Brosterhous (4)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Passing: R. Leonard (1575)
Rushing: R. Leonard (609)
Receiving: B. Collins (374)
Touchdowns: R. Leonard (13)
Coaches:
Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (3rd season)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
