Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/21/2025

Game Time: 3:15 pm ET, Friday, March 21, 2025

Venue:  Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Vandy +4.5, Saint Mary’s -4.5; Over/Under:  136.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Vandy +4.5, Saint Mary’s -4.5; Over/Under:  136.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Vandy +4.5, Saint Mary’s -4.5; Over/Under:  136.5 points

Vanderbilt Commodores:  20-12 (8-10) (12th place, SEC)

Saint Mary's Gaels:  28-5 (17-1) (1st place, WCC)

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Vanderbilt Commodores:  2-3  last 5

Saint Mary's Gaels:  4-1  last 5

Vanderbilt is entering this game with a 20-12 record overall, an 8-10 record in conference games, and they are 3-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Texas Longhorns in their last game. Jason Edwards led the team in points in that game with 20 while Tyler Nickel was next on the team with 14. Chris Manon led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Devin McGlockton led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 41.4% from the field, 15.8% from 3-point range, and 70% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 74.8 PPG against them. Vanderbilt has an ATS record of 18-14 this season and their O/U record is 17-15.

Saint Mary’s is entering this game with a 28-5 record overall, a 17-1 conference record, and they are 3-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in their last game. Mitchell Saxen led the team in points in that game with 20 while Augustas Marčiulionis was next on the team with 12. Augustas Marčiulionis led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Luke Barrett and Harry Wessels each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 38.5% from the field, 0% from 3-point range, and 73.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 73.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 60.7 PPG against them. Saint Mary’s has an ATS record of 14-18 this season and their O/U record is 12-19-1.

The current betting odds have Saint Mary's listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Saint Mary's has looked really good in their games this season with their 28-5 record overall and their 17-1 conference record which had them right at the top of the WCC. They weren't great in their neutral site games as they are 3-3 this season, but they were the best team in the WCC regular season. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has looked good in their games this season with their 20-12 record overall, but their 8-10 conference record had them in the bottom half of the SEC. They did play in the strongest conference this season, but they are also 3-2 in their neutral site games this year. Vandy had some good wins this season and played a tough schedule being in the SEC which is what helped them get into the tournament this year, but they haven't looked that great lately. They are only 2-3 in their last 5 games and they are coming off a loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament. Saint Mary's has been the much hotter team lately as they are 4-1 in their last 5 games and dominated their conference all season. They do play in a much weaker conference, but they won the regular season with 2 wins over Gonzaga too. They are coming off a loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, but they also went 0/16 from 3 in that game and still kept it tight in the loss. Making the tournament was also a big deal for Vanderbilt since they have not gone often lately so this is a team that is more so happy to be here while Saint Mary's makes the tournament every year and has some experience to lean on. The best way to place a bet here is on Saint Mary's to cover the spread in this game. 

Vanderbilt Saint Mary's Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 21, 2025 (3:15 pm ET start time) is Saint Mary’s 72 Vanderbilt 64.

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Vanderbilt Commodores: 6-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 10-5 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 points/game or less. 4-1 ATS when playing with 7 or more days rest. 24-17 UNDER in non-conference games. 26-17 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game.

Saint Mary's Gaels: 2-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 3-8 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5. 3-6 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 4-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 33-23 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% of their shots or more.

Vanderbilt Commodores:  A. Hemenway (G) Out - Undisclosed.

Saint Mary's Gaels:  None.

"It's a great day. I'm so happy for the players and the Vanderbilt fans who supported us this year. It's a reward for a great season. Going into the tournament, it's what you all plan for. It's what you work for. It's the most exciting time of the year. To take this team and keep playing, keep going on the journey, is something we really wanted. We wanted it badly, and we didn't like how our last game ended. So we wanted more.” - Mark Byington on his team making the NCAA Tournament. 

"I think that's how it turned out. I don't think they wanted Saxen to score 20. But it did turn out that way. They took Augustas [Marciulionis] out a little bit but, some other guys are going to have to make some shots if they're going to take the ball out of Augustas' hands and then Saxen's in the middle of the floor. And from there you have 4-on-3, so, you should be able to shoot a decent percentage." - Randy Bennett after his team’s loss against Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament.

J. Edwards 

A. Hoggard 

C. Manon 

D. McGlockton 

T. Nickel

L. Barrett 

A. Marciulionis 

P. Murauskas 

J. Ross 

M. Saxen

PPG: J. Edwards (17)

APG: A. Hoggard (4.6)

Reb/G: D. McGlockton (7.9)

PPG: A. Marciulionis (14.4)

APG: A. Marciulionis (6.1)

Reb/G: P. Murauskas (8.1)

Coaches:

Vanderbilt Commodores: Mark Byington (1st season)

Saint Mary's Gaels: Randy Bennett (24th season)