Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks: NBA Playoffs First Round Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/16/2022

Western Conference First Round, Game 1 -- Best of 7

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Jazz -5

BetMGM: Jazz -5.5

Caesars: Jazz -5

No. 5 Jazz: 49-33

No. 4 Mavs: 52-30

I’m a cautious optimist. I don’t even know if cautious is the right word, rather than a slightly annoyed optimist. Because I find this series to be something out of a horror novel that can’t be comprehended because it’s written in Latin and the Devil will pop up if you read it.

 

That being said, curse me for thinking the Dallas Mavericks are going to win Game 1 of their first-round series against the Utah Jazz on Saturday at American Airlines Center because I have no moral compass to think that the Jazz are going to figure out how to play competent basketball.

 

I normally wouldn’t think this drastic if not for the fact that Luka Doncic will not be playing in Game 1 due to a calf injury he suffered in the final game of the season because no one had the common decency to take the man out of a game that wasn’t needed to win. Great job, you got 52 wins and now you have home-court advantage but now have to hope that Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson take over the game and Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert turn into pumpkins.

 

Fortunately that’s quite possible given Utah’s recent run to close the season of blowing double-digit leads. It’s one of the reasons why they fell to fifth in the West after what was considered a strong year.

 

But the Jazz have an opening, because it’s very difficult to replace 28 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. It doesn’t matter how Dinwiddie or Brunson can attack off the dribble, nor does it matter how well Dwight Powell can play in the pick-and-roll. The Mavs are going to need someone to break out and be the guy that can make a difference. And at least for Game 1, and maybe Game 2, that’s going to have to be Dorian Finney-Smith.

 

Maybe not from a scoring standpoint, but his defense and timely baskets are going to be crucial for Dallas. If you’re looking for someone to be considered an all-defense selection, look no further than the man who went from undrafted to signing a $55 million extension. He’s spent the most possessions in the league, at nearly 2,000, guarding the opponent’s highest usage player. Expect to see a lot of him on Mitchell in this matchup.

 

When Finney-Smith is engaged defensively, the Mavs are the toughest team in the league to contend with on both ends. Dallas is 18-6 this season when he has at least two steals, and 8-3 when he as at least three.

 

He’s a 3-and-D guy that’s going to get a lot of looks in the corner and will be one of those called upon when he gets the ball. He needs to be the X-Factor the Mavs have needed him to be this year.

 

Ultimately, it’s going to come down to if the Mavs have enough to slow down Mitchell and Gobert. Mitchell is a walking 25 a night and Dallas will heavily focus on him. At the same time, Gobert averaging 16 points, 15 rebounds and two blocks per game is another animal Dallas has to brace for. With Maxi Kleber likely out, expect a lot of doubles coming Gobert’s way if the two-man game between Mitchell and Gobert goes south.

Again, it’s weird, but crazy voodoo has at least me believing Dallas can still win this series. Even if the Mavs can get a split without Doncic, that’s a win. And if they can win Game 1, all the pressure goes to Utah for Game 2. Dinwiddie was brought to Dallas for big moments and he’s had plenty of them so far. The playoffs are a completely different animal and I think he shows why Dallas won the trade. Mavs by 8

Jazz are 4-13 ATS this season against Southwest Division opponents.

Jazz are 7-19 ATS this season after winning three of four.

Jazz are 11-27 ATS this season after playing a road game.

The under is 27-13-1 this season when the Mavs play at home.

The under is 19-6 the past three seasons when the Mavs are a home underdog.

PG: Mike Conley

SG: Donovan Mitchell

SF: Bojan Bogdanovic

PF: Royce O'Neale

C: Rudy Gobert

PG: Spencer Dinwiddie

SG: Jalen Brunson

SF: Reggie Bullock

PF: Dorian Finney-Smith

C: Dwight Powell

Jazz: Donovan Mitchell (day-to-day)

Mavs: Luka Doncic (calf, out), Maxi Kleber (ankle, out), Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot, out)