by Wayne Root
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024There’s nothing worse than losing a game by a point or a half of a point. There’s definitely a few games during the season that you will lose by a point or even worse is by the hook. Some games can’t be helped but many can by shopping around for the best number. Knowing key numbers is the “key” to winning a few extra games or simply not playing a game with a bad number.
Sharp bettors know the key numbers in every sport they bet. Even more importantly, they know how to use them to their advantage.
Key numbers – that’s one of those concepts that most sports bettors have heard of, but fewer understand what they are and why it is important. Key numbers are an important part of NFL and college football handicapping, and if you don’t ‘get’ them then you are working at a disadvantage. Let’s make sure we all understand them.
The most significant key number is three. In a study of 17 years worth of games, the winning margin was found to be three in 15.1 percent of the games played. Why is that? Well, think about how often a football game is tied until a team kicks a field goal in the closing seconds. Or how often teams trade points back and forth with only a field goal being the difference.
Let’s say that Miami is a 3 point favorite against Tampa Bay. Your line is -3.5. Do you simply play it thinking the line won’t come into play? What happens when the final is 23-20? You lose by the hook not completely understanding that -3 is a key number in the NFL and how often it comes into play.
As expert sports handicappers know, there are some margins, though, that are considerably more common than others. The numbers that are the most common are called key numbers.
For those of you who don’t know, the most frequent winning margins in CFB are 3 and 7. It’s why each is referred to as a key number. It’s also why there’s such a perceived value when you get a team at -2.5 or -6.5 when betting a favorite and +3.5 and +7.5 when betting the dog. Knowing key numbers will also allow you to increase or decrease the amount wagered.
The second most common key number is seven. That margin obviously happens when a team wins by a touchdown. 7.1 percent of games finished at that number. For sports bettors, there are three other key numbers that happened with significant frequency, and each happened about the same amount of times – between 5.8 and six percent. Those numbers are six (two field goals, or an unconverted touchdown), four (the difference between a touchdown for one team and a field goal for the other), and 10 (a field goal and a touchdown difference).
An understanding of key numbers can also fuel your decision making when it comes to the timing of your sports bet. If the team you like is at +2.5 then it might make sense to hold off on making your bet in the hopes that it will move to +3 and you will have the key number on your side – or at least not working against you.
A general rule of thumb is to bet underdogs as close to game time as possible and bet favorites as early as you can. If your number is at -3 by the time you get to it but it didn’t start there then you’ll want to make your bet as soon as you feel comfortable to avoid having to pay too much to make the bet. This is a reminder to adjust you bet size. I adjust my bet size by 10% if the line is off by a point. At this moment, it’s a math test vs a percentage exam.
Getting the best number when betting on sports is critical including totals. Similar to stocks, knowing when to fire into a steaming market helps when trying to secure the best price. One of the biggest talking points on that is key numbers in college football. While sides have remained the same at coefficients of 3 and 7, totals have changed over the years.
Based on game log data since the 2000 season, there's been a shift in a few of the key numbers. A total of 55 continues to rule the sport, while 65 has taken over as the top number within its respective range.
What I find interesting is that amateur bettors don’t use the same principles with totals. For the most part, if ‘John Doe’ sees two great offenses, he looks to bet the OVER regardless of the number.
To be a successful sports bettor, key numbers are something you need to be aware of. Once you learn to look at a bet with key numbers in mind, all kinds of interesting betting opportunities will start to reveal themselves.
Key numbers are different in different sports so before you make a bet, always be aware of the role that key numbers play in the specific sport you are betting on.
Sharp bettors know the key numbers in every sport they bet. Even more importantly, they know how to use them to their advantage.
Key numbers – that’s one of those concepts that most sports bettors have heard of, but fewer understand what they are and why it is important. Key numbers are an important part of NFL and college football handicapping, and if you don’t ‘get’ them then you are working at a disadvantage. Let’s make sure we all understand them.
The most significant key number is three. In a study of 17 years worth of games, the winning margin was found to be three in 15.1 percent of the games played. Why is that? Well, think about how often a football game is tied until a team kicks a field goal in the closing seconds. Or how often teams trade points back and forth with only a field goal being the difference.
Let’s say that Miami is a 3 point favorite against Tampa Bay. Your line is -3.5. Do you simply play it thinking the line won’t come into play? What happens when the final is 23-20? You lose by the hook not completely understanding that -3 is a key number in the NFL and how often it comes into play.
As expert sports handicappers know, there are some margins, though, that are considerably more common than others. The numbers that are the most common are called key numbers.
For those of you who don’t know, the most frequent winning margins in CFB are 3 and 7. It’s why each is referred to as a key number. It’s also why there’s such a perceived value when you get a team at -2.5 or -6.5 when betting a favorite and +3.5 and +7.5 when betting the dog. Knowing key numbers will also allow you to increase or decrease the amount wagered.
The second most common key number is seven. That margin obviously happens when a team wins by a touchdown. 7.1 percent of games finished at that number. For sports bettors, there are three other key numbers that happened with significant frequency, and each happened about the same amount of times – between 5.8 and six percent. Those numbers are six (two field goals, or an unconverted touchdown), four (the difference between a touchdown for one team and a field goal for the other), and 10 (a field goal and a touchdown difference).
An understanding of key numbers can also fuel your decision making when it comes to the timing of your sports bet. If the team you like is at +2.5 then it might make sense to hold off on making your bet in the hopes that it will move to +3 and you will have the key number on your side – or at least not working against you.
A general rule of thumb is to bet underdogs as close to game time as possible and bet favorites as early as you can. If your number is at -3 by the time you get to it but it didn’t start there then you’ll want to make your bet as soon as you feel comfortable to avoid having to pay too much to make the bet. This is a reminder to adjust you bet size. I adjust my bet size by 10% if the line is off by a point. At this moment, it’s a math test vs a percentage exam.
Getting the best number when betting on sports is critical including totals. Similar to stocks, knowing when to fire into a steaming market helps when trying to secure the best price. One of the biggest talking points on that is key numbers in college football. While sides have remained the same at coefficients of 3 and 7, totals have changed over the years.
Based on game log data since the 2000 season, there's been a shift in a few of the key numbers. A total of 55 continues to rule the sport, while 65 has taken over as the top number within its respective range.
What I find interesting is that amateur bettors don’t use the same principles with totals. For the most part, if ‘John Doe’ sees two great offenses, he looks to bet the OVER regardless of the number.
To be a successful sports bettor, key numbers are something you need to be aware of. Once you learn to look at a bet with key numbers in mind, all kinds of interesting betting opportunities will start to reveal themselves.
Key numbers are different in different sports so before you make a bet, always be aware of the role that key numbers play in the specific sport you are betting on.
