Fight Night Preview And Main Event O/U Winner

UFC Apex - Las Vegas, NV

Fight Night returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 10th. The Main Event is a rematch between Marcin Tybura and Sergey Spivak. Tybura won by unanimous decision when these two heavyweights previously faced each other. That was more than four years ago. Both fighers have seen a lot of action since then. I've previewed Saturday's rematch below and I've also provided a prediction. 

This may not turn out to be the the most exciting fight but it's still an intriguing matchup. When Tybura (25-8) and Spivak (16-4) first met, Spivak had just turned 25 years old. Tybura was already 34. The more experienced fighter won rather comfortably. At 29, Spivak is now in his prime. In theory, only a few months away from his 39th birthday, Tybura should be slowing down. There's no real evidence to support that though. 

Tybura submitted Tuivasa in the first round only a few months ago and he is now 8-2 dating back to his win in the first fight. The two losses were against a pair of tough opponents in Aspinall and Volkov. Prior to the first fight with Spivak, Tybura was off back-to-back losses and had dropped four of five. Despite his age, Tybura enters in better form than he was in 2020. 

The same could arguably be said of "The Polar Bear." Spivak lost to Gane in his last fight but is 6-2 since first meeting Tybura. His other loss came against Aspinall. Outside of Jon Jones, Gane and Aspinall are among the best in the world. Spivak's losses have also come against top level opponents. 

In addition to each being battle-tested, both these giants are fairly well-rounded, as far as heavyweights go. They both prefer to wrestle but each can win by either KO or by submission. Tybura's fights go the distance far more often than Spivak's. He's won nine of 12 decisions over his career. Spivak has only had three, winning two. They're both heavier than they were for the first fight.

Unlike a lot of main events, this one is expected to be quite even. Money has started to come in on the younger fighter. After opening at a pick'em, Spivak is currently a -135 favorite. (Draft Kings on Sunday Aug. 4th) The O/U line for the total number of rounds is set at 3.5, the under set at -115. 

Prediction: Heavyweight fights can end quickly but this one probably won't. Three of Tybura's last five fights have gone to the scorecards. With both being skilled wrestlers, Tybura and Spivak should have the ability to neutralize each other's strength. There will be a lot of time spent on the ground without much happening. That works for me. Go with Over 3.5 Rounds.