UCF 312: Preview And Picks

Saturday, February 8th
Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia

All eyes will be on Sydney this Saturday. It'll mark the seventh time that the UFC has visited Australia's largest city, the first since 2023. Overall, this will be the 19th time that Australia has hosted a UFC event.  A few of the many memorable fights down under include Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira back in UFC 110 and Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski in UFC 284. Of course, who could forget Holly Holm's upset over Ronda Rousey in UFC 193. With a pair of titles on the line, Saturday's card is sure to produce more exciting memories. Let's take a closer look at some of the biggest fights. 

The Main Event
The headliner features Drikus du Plessis taking on Sean Strickland for the middleweight title. Du Plessis is a -205 favorite. Recall that these fighters had a great battle against each other, a little over a year ago. It was a 5-round war that could have gone either way. Du Plessis won a split decision but a case could have been made for Strickland. Including that victory, the 31-year old South African fighter is now 10-0 his last 10 and 22-2 for his career.

The 33-year old Strickland (29-6) followed up the narrow defeat against du Plessis by defeating Paulo Costo. (It was scored a split decision but most agree that Strickland actually won comfortably.) He's 4-1 his last five. Both fighters have a recent win against Israel Adesanya. Speaking of Adesanya, Strickland is looking to join "The Last Stylebender" as the only man to ever hold the middleweight belt more than once. 

The winner of Saturday's main event could find himself matched up against Islam Makhachev. Willing to move up in weight, the reigning lightweight champion said this after his last fight: "I don’t know when it’s going to happen, but I told them I’m not [going to] leave this sport without second belt. I need the second belt to be, and after I’ll talk like ‘I’m the greatest’ or something. But right now, my goal is to be double champion. I don’t know if it’s going to be next fight or when, [but] I’m still fighting, still winning. I defend my belt how many times the UFC wants, I will defend. When they give me chance, I want to be double champion.”

Prediction: This should be another extremely close fight. With the over 4.5 rounds listed at -200, its likely to again go the distance. That being the case, the value lies with the underdog Strickland.  

The Co-Main Event
The women's strawweight title is on the line in the co-main event, as champion Zhang Weili (25-3) defends her belt against undefeated challenger Tatiana Suarez. Off back-to-back title defenses, the 35-year old Weili has won four straight. The only person to beat her over the past decade is Rose Namajunas. Zhang is a warrior with a ton of heart. She's been in some incredible battles. The champ opened as the favorite. Yet, money has come in on the challenger and the 34-year old Suarez is now a slight -120 favorite. That says a lot about the talent which she possesses. (Weile has been the betting favorite in each of her last seven fights.) A former Olympic wrestling hopeful, Suarez long been considered a future champion. Now she finally gets her chance. 

Here's what the champ had to say: “I believe I would fight Tatiana sooner or later because she has a great track record, and she’s also very high in the rankings. I think Tatiana is very good at grappling and wrestling, and I’m very happy I can fight with her in Australia. I think Tatiana is the best wrestler and grappler of all the opponents I have faced. But I think all of Tatiana’s strengths have a way to solve it and a way to handle it. I think Tatiana is a fighter who is very persistent. She has faced many adversities in her life so I’m sure she will be very persistent. I don’t think I need to prove people wrong. Tatiana is a good fighter and I understand why people think this is a close fight.”

Prediction:  As most of Zhang's fights are, this should be an absolute war. As much as I like and respect Weili, Suarez's wrestling and grappling skills are on a different level. I'm likely not backing either fighter (although I may take a closer look at the over) but I'm sure not going to miss it. This has the potential to be one of the best fights of the year. 

Don't Blink
One fight on Saturday's card which could go either way features Viacheslav "Slava" Borshchev taking on Tom "Big Train" Nolan. Borshchev (8-4-1) is a 33-year old American fighter. Six of his eight victories have come by KO/TKO, three of those occurring in the first round. Hailing from Brisbane, the 24-year old Nolan will have the home crowd on his side. Six of his nine fights have been by KO/TKO. His last fight was a decision but his previous four all ended in the first round. Prediction: Both these guys are looking to knock the other out. I expect a first round stoppage. Play on the under 1.5 rounds.