by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 02, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cincinnati -22.5
BetMGM: Cincinnati -22.5
Caesars: Cincinnati -22.5
Season record
Tulsa: 3-5 (2-2 AAC)
No. 2 Cincinnati: 8-0 (4-0 AAC)
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Tulsa - Cincinnati preview and analysis
Last week
Tulsa: lost 20-17 vs. Navy on Friday
Cincinnati: won 31-12 at Tulane on Saturday
The Cincinnati Bearcats will look to continue their historic season on Saturday, trying to move to 9-0 when they host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Cincinnati’s run toward the College Football Playoff, and the likelihood of getting to an undefeated season, took another step forward but not just due to their own winnings. The Houston Cougars helped a great deal with their upset victory over the SMU Mustangs for their first loss of the year.
The American Athletic Conference likely doesn’t enjoy the thought of a one-loss team still holding the mantle of putting their playoff chances at risk, but I digress.
Following a hard-fought one-touchdown victory over the Navy Midshipmen two weeks ago, Cincinnati answered with a strong second half to take down the Tulane Green Wave by 19 points in New Orleans.
Heisman Trophy candidate Desmond Ridder threw for 227 yards and three touchdowns, while the Cincinnati offense had only 351 total yards of offense. Leading rusher Jerome Ford averaged less than four yards per carry to finish with 65 yards and a touchdown.
For the most part, the Bearcats have handled things well with that large target on their backs. The last two weeks have been their most difficult stretch of games, but can right the ship with a dominant showing against a Tulsa team coming off a three-point loss against the pesky Navy.
Navy’s defense, much like it played against Cincy, did give Tulsa some fits. Davis Brin completed only 13 of 23 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown, but also threw an interception in what turned out to be a defensive struggle. Tulsa’s defense did enough to hold Navy to just over 300 total yards (all on the ground, mind you), but not enough.
Prediction
This matchup is going to be a strong quarterbacks game between two guys who can sling the football. But after the latest College Football Playoff rankings were released and Cincinnati was shown the door at No. 6 (because this whole committee is laughable), Cincinnati is going to be a mad group on Saturday. Forget playing for the AAC championship right now; it’s another Group of 5 school being shanked by the CFP committee. Anyway, in this battle of QBs, give me Cincy. Cincinnati by 27
Betting trends
Tulsa is 12-2 ATS on the road in the past three seasons, and 2-1 this season.
Tulsa is 3-1 ATS this season after a game when they force one turnover or less.
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS at home in its past seven when the total is between 52.5 and 56.
Statistical leaders
Tulsa:
Passing: Davis Brin -- 2,080 yards, 11 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Shamari Brooks -- 588 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Josh Johnson -- 600 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Justin Wright -- 3.5 sacks
Cincinnati:
Passing: Desmond Ridder -- 1,847 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Jerome Ford -- 864 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Alec Pierce -- 490 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Three tied -- 3 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
