by Team Del Genio
Thursday, Aug 31, 2023The San Diego Padres seem to be a better team than their 62-72 record indicates. They are outscoring their opponents by 0.4 runs per game. They have scored 602 times this season while giving up 548 runs. Their win/loss record using Pythagorean models is 73-61. With that record, they would hold the second wild card spot in the National League and likely destined to compete in the postseason once again. Instead, they are 22 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, and they are 7 1/2 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final wild-card spot in the National League.
Why has manager Bob Melvin’s team underperformed their run differential numbers? After their 6-5 loss in St. Louis on Tuesday, they are winless in their eleven games that have gone into extra innings. They have only won one of the twelve games this season decided by a walk-off run. Of the twenty-eight games decided by one run, they have won only six of them. Perhaps their inability to win close games is an indictment of the character of this team. Yet this was a group returning mostly intact that reached the National League Championship Series. They have one of the best managers in baseball in the veteran Melvin.
The Padres’ inability to win close games could strictly be a function of bad luck that will eventually get evened out. Yet bettors expecting this switch to be flipped could go bankrupt waiting for it to happen. San Diego has only won six games in their last eighteen games with five losses in their last six games going into the final day of August.
Injuries are beginning to pile up. Their pitching staff is without Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Musgrove has been on the injured list since the end of July with shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has a 10-3 record this season with a 3.05 era and a 1.14 whip in seventeen starts. In his eleven starts since the beginning of June, he has an 8-1 record with a 1.88 era and a 1.00 whip across 67 innings.
Darvish was put on the injured list this week with an elbow that may shut him down for the rest of the season. The right-hander was not meeting his 2022 numbers when he posted a 16-8 record with a 3.08 era and a 0.98 whip. This year, Darvish has an 8-10 record with a 4.56 era and a 1.30 whip. After struggling in May and June with an era over 5.00, he started to find his groove with a 3.62 era and 32 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Yet after giving up four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, he was shut down with perhaps the elbow injury impacting his performance.
The bats have underperformed this season. San Diego has just a .239 batting average on the year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .408 slugging percentage. They have only been a .500 team at home at Petco Park with a 33-33 record, yet they have won only 29 of their 68 games on the road.
The Padres still appeared capable of making a run to take a wildcard spot in the National League at the beginning of the month. Yet as the MLB season enters its final month, San Diego will need to suddenly play their best baseball and finally get some luck on their side to make the playoffs. Bettors may be better served in assuming their descent into mediocrity only continues the rest of the way.
Good luck - TDG.
Why has manager Bob Melvin’s team underperformed their run differential numbers? After their 6-5 loss in St. Louis on Tuesday, they are winless in their eleven games that have gone into extra innings. They have only won one of the twelve games this season decided by a walk-off run. Of the twenty-eight games decided by one run, they have won only six of them. Perhaps their inability to win close games is an indictment of the character of this team. Yet this was a group returning mostly intact that reached the National League Championship Series. They have one of the best managers in baseball in the veteran Melvin.
The Padres’ inability to win close games could strictly be a function of bad luck that will eventually get evened out. Yet bettors expecting this switch to be flipped could go bankrupt waiting for it to happen. San Diego has only won six games in their last eighteen games with five losses in their last six games going into the final day of August.
Injuries are beginning to pile up. Their pitching staff is without Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Musgrove has been on the injured list since the end of July with shoulder inflammation. The right-hander has a 10-3 record this season with a 3.05 era and a 1.14 whip in seventeen starts. In his eleven starts since the beginning of June, he has an 8-1 record with a 1.88 era and a 1.00 whip across 67 innings.
Darvish was put on the injured list this week with an elbow that may shut him down for the rest of the season. The right-hander was not meeting his 2022 numbers when he posted a 16-8 record with a 3.08 era and a 0.98 whip. This year, Darvish has an 8-10 record with a 4.56 era and a 1.30 whip. After struggling in May and June with an era over 5.00, he started to find his groove with a 3.62 era and 32 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Yet after giving up four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts, he was shut down with perhaps the elbow injury impacting his performance.
The bats have underperformed this season. San Diego has just a .239 batting average on the year with a .324 on-base percentage and a .408 slugging percentage. They have only been a .500 team at home at Petco Park with a 33-33 record, yet they have won only 29 of their 68 games on the road.
The Padres still appeared capable of making a run to take a wildcard spot in the National League at the beginning of the month. Yet as the MLB season enters its final month, San Diego will need to suddenly play their best baseball and finally get some luck on their side to make the playoffs. Bettors may be better served in assuming their descent into mediocrity only continues the rest of the way.
Good luck - TDG.
