Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Saturday, March 11th, 2022 

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Nuggets -5; O/U 224

Fanduel:  Spread:  Nuggets -6; O/U 223.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Nuggets -5.5; O/U 223.5

Raptors: 35-30, 7th place Eastern Conference

Nuggets: 40-27, 6th place Western Conference

A non-conference NBA battle between teams that will be playoff underdogs in their own conferences.  Toronto has been rebuilding under the master plan of the best GM in the League in Masai Ujiri.  After the Championship 3 seasons ago (you know the real one before the bubble one)... Kawhi Leonard left the team for the Los Angeles Clippers and a bit of a collapse resulted.  Masai is doing the same thing to rebuild this team as he did to make them Champions in the first place… he moved the old guard stars, bumped up his projects to starters and drafted well.  The team now features PG Fred VanVleet, PF Pascal Siakam, and rookie SF Scottie Barnes… a perfect combo if the team keeps being built well.  The Denver Nuggets don’t have a similar story… The Nuggets have never won an NBA Championship.  They also don’t always trade or draft well.  The team’s star C Nikola Jokic was an accident.  No one in the Denver organization can take credit for a 2nd round pick becoming a league MVP, otherwise the Nuggets would have been building around Jokic the entire time.  The Nuggets tried to fill a team around Jokic once they realized what lady luck had given them,... they did it poorly.  SG Jamal Murray worked fine… except he is a bit anemic on the defensive end (the opposite of what Nikola needs in a SG), also Jamal is hurt.  PF Michael Porter Jr came with warning labels attached.  A potential NBA all-star that had surgery that cut both his high school playing days short… and his college playing days short.  The Nuggets took a flier on him and drafted him at the end of the lottery… it sorta worked… except after Porter Jr’s recent back surgery it looks like he may never be the same player… or may never be a full time player again.  The team also traded very badly two seasons ago when they added SF Aaron Gordon.  Aaron’s stats point to a very highly paid player that is virtually invisible on the floor.  So the best player in basketball right now… Nikola Jokic… trots out onto the floor each game with the mission of winning it by himself.  It results in Jokic leading the team in points, assists, rebounds, FG%, steals, and blocks… a totally unsustainable position to enter the playoffs in.  

The Toronto Raptors have won only 4 of their last ten games.  They are fortunate to still be in the top 8.  They went 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  With 2 Overs and 8 Unders.  If you're wondering if the Raptors can doo any damage in the playoffs this year… just remind yourself that they lost to the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons in back to back games.  They also lost to the New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points when the Raptors were favored by 3.5.  This is a bad team with a few good players.  The main problem is that lots of the roster is too young and lots of the players are projects in different stages of development.  Masai is expected to make a big move whether it is a draft day trade or playing chicken with another team’s restricted free agent this offseason. It needs to be something.  This team would actually be the ideal landing spot for Nikola Jokic.  The team is very athletic and excels on defense.  The shooting needs work.  They won’t get Nikola Jokic because he may never hit the trading block unless he demands it…. So the future is building around SF Scottie Barnes.  Several of the future moves will be designed to find Scottie the perfect running mate.

The Denver Nuggets have won 8 of their last 10 games.  All through the sheer talent of Nikola Jokic.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch. In the last win over the Sacramento Kings Jokic dropped 38 points and 18 rebounds!!  The Nuggets almost lost the lead in the 4th quarter as SF Aaron Gordon went 0-5 from the 3-point line and 4 of 10 from the floor… He finished with 11 points and 5 rebounds to go with his 3 turnovers… Fortunately for the Nuggets and Jokic, PG Monte Morris was there to step up with 20 points on 8-11 shooting.  They got the win, but it was a struggle.  The difference came down to Denver’s 58 points in the paint (I wonder who made that possible?) versus Sacramentos 48 points in the paint.  If you think the Nuggets will do damage in the playoff you need to remind yourself that they struggled for a win over the Sacramento Kings… and needed 20 points from an unspectacular backup point guard who normally averages 13.  

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The Raptors are 35-30 on the season, but 36-29 ATS. They have logged 33 Overs and 32 Unders.  They are 18-15 in road games.’

Denver is 40-27 on the season, but 30-36-1 ATS.  They have notched 34 Overs, 31 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are pretty good at home where they are 20-12 (it might be the altitude)

The Raptors are 19th in scoring with 108.4 ppg, 12th in rebounds with 44.9 per game, and 18th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7.  On defense they rank 9th while holding opponents to 107.2 ppg.

The Nuggets are 12th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 19th in rebounds with 44.2 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 12th while holding opponents to 108.2 ppg.

Our prediction for Saturday, March 12th is…. Raptors 118 - Nuggets 113

The Raptors will get the win.  This is really a battle of defense.  Can the Toronto Raptors collection of random bigs slow down Jokic… probably not… but will the Raptors win at every other position?... Yes.  

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The Raptors are 27-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less.
Denver is 5-1 ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season.
After a home loss Denver is 23 Overs and 8 Unders the last 3 seasons.

Nuggets: SG Will Barton (ankle) Out ** SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out ** PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out 

Raptors: SF Scottie Barnes, PF Pascal Siakam, C Khem Birch, PG Fred VanVleet, SG Gary Trent Jr

Nuggets: PF Jeff Green, SF Aaroon Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, PG Monte Morris, PG Austin Rivers

Nuggets

Points: Nikola Jokic 26.1

Assists: Nikola Jokic 8.1

Rebounds: Nikola Jokic 13.9

Steals: Nikola Jokic 1.4

Blocks: Nikola Jokic 0.8

Raptors

Points: Pascal Siakam 21.5

Assists: Fred VanVleet 6.8

Rebounds: Pascal Siakam 8.4

Steals: Gary Trent Jr 1.9

Blocks: Chris Boucher 1.0

Raptors: Nick Nurse

Nuggets: Michael Malone