Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Stanley Cup Playoffs, Game 4 Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 5/8/2022

Eastern Conference First Round, Game 4 -- Maple Leafs lead 2-1

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to watch: TBS, Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet, CBC

DraftKings: Lightning -120, Maple Leafs +100

BetMGM: Lightning -115, Maple Leafs +105

Caesars: Lightning -120, Maple Leafs +100

I have no idea what to think of this series.

I get the Toronto Maple Leafs have dominated at 5-on-5 and have, overall, dominated this series with the exception of Game 2. I can't, however, be in good conscience to think the Tampa Bay Lightning are ultimately losing this series.

Part of me feels it's the vibe of Toronto, the other part has everything to do with Tampa being the two-time, defending Stanley Cup champs. That's why I am not falling on the sword yet with the Lightning and taking them to win Game 4 of their first-round series against Toronto, which will make this a best-of-3.

For the third straight game, the winning team scored five goals. We can chalk up Toronto's Game 3 win with two empty-net goals, so it doesn't really count. But surprisingly enough, for the most part in this series, it hasn't been close. It's either been one team wins outright by a large margin and no inbetween.

The Maple Leafs jumped out to a 3-0 lead and Jack Campbell did more than enough to make 32 saves and preserve a series lead. But again, as we've learned in past years with the Leafs, there's nothing ever safe when the Leafs have a series lead.

"Coming into this rink, it's a tough rink," Campbell said. "Their fans are into it and their team is always buzzing. We did a great job of having a strong start tonight, especially after Game 2 (a 5-3 loss on Wednesday). The sacrifices every single guy was making in front of me tonight, blocking shots, getting into lanes, and making it tough to get things to the net, was huge."

What's perhaps been the most surprising part of this series is how easy the Leafs have been able to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy. Game 1 involved a lot of power plays, Game 3 was just the Leafs staying the course and peppering the best goalie in the world with shots.

This time it was the depth getting it done. Colin Blackwell, Morgan Rielly and David Kampf scored. None of those are named Auston Matthews.

"We pushed, but sitting up here now we're still down 2-1 (in the series)," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "We can sit here and pat ourselves on the back all night long and say, 'Hey, great job pushing at the end,' [but] it's still ... you're down 2-1."

Tampa cut it to 3-2 but couldn't find that last goal. Campbell made two big saves late in the third: One on Nick Paul, and then on the ensuing power play on Steven Stamkos' one timer from Nikita Kucherov.

"It was a pretty nice save and a pretty crucial time of the game. That's what he does," Matthews said. "He gives us confidence every time he's out there. … He has a lot of fun out there and I think that's the most important part for him, when he's playing really well, he's having a lot of fun out there. You could see that in his play tonight. He made a lot of saves, but I think none bigger than that one."

The Leafs have to feel good about where they're at. Not only did they steal back home-ice advantage, but they have a series lead against a much more superior opponent. However, you better believe I'm not choosing against the Lightning until they lose.

The Lightning are going to need a complete 60-minute performance. They've played a lot of hockey. They've endured a lot. Now they need to do it now and try to springboard themselves to a position to win this series. Lightning win 4-3

Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy is 15-0 off a playoff defeat the last three post-seasons
Tampa Bay is 37-11 when playing with revenge, including 10-0 at home when playing with revenge from a home loss
Toronto is 20-6 off a blowout win by 3+ goals
Toronto is 9-21 when leading in a playoff series

Maple Leafs:

Michael Bunting -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner

Ilya Mikheyev -- John Tavares -- Alexander Kerfoot

William Nylander -- David Kampf -- Pierre Engvall

Nicholas Abruzzese -- Colin Blackwell -- Jason Spezza

Morgan Rielly -- Ilya Lyubushkin

Mark Giordano -- Timothy Liljegren

Jake Muzzin -- TJ Brodie

Jack Campbell

Lightning:

Ondrej Palat -- Steven Stamkos -- Nikita Kucherov

Alex Killorn -- Anthony Cirelli -- Brandon Hagel

Nicholas Paul -- Brayden Point -- Ross Colton

Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry

Victor Hedman -- Erik Cernak

Ryan McDonagh -- Cal Foote

Mikhail Sergachev -- Zach Bogosian

Andrei Vasilevskiy