Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/09/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Venue:  Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +136, Lightning -162; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +135, Lightning -160; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +135, Lightning -160; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  47-25-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  45-26-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  8-1-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  6-3-1 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering this game with 98 points, a 47-25-4 record overall, and they are 22-12-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Columbus Blue Jackets in their last game, winning that one at home 5-0, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Florida Panthers still to be played on Tuesday. In their game against the Blue Jackets, William Nylander and Nicholas Robertson each led the team in goals scored with 2 while Auston Matthews scored 1 goal for them in that one. Morgan Rielly led the team in assists with 2 while Matthew Knies led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Anthony Stolarz was the starting goalie in that game and he recorded the shutout as he allowed 0 goals on 27 shots with 27 saves and a 1.000 save percentage. Their offense has scored 250 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 221 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 96 points, a 45-26-6 record overall, and they are 27-8-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the New York Rangers in their last game, winning that one on the road 5-1. Brayden Point led the team in goals scored with 2 while Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde, and Brandon Hagel each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Guentzel led the team in assists with 3 while Brayden Point led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 39 shots with 38 saves and a .974 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 276 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 202 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 45-26-6 record overall which has them in 2nd place of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They have also looked great on home ice this year with their 27-8-2 home record. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs have looked really good in their games this season with their 47-25-4 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the East and in a playoff spot. They have also been a good road team with their 22-12-3 road record this season. The Maple Leafs have been the much hotter team lately as they are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 4 wins in a row now, but they aren't in a great situation here. They are playing this game on a back-to-back while the Lightning are rested, and the Maple Leafs also have a tough game against the Panthers the night before. The Lightning have also been hot lately as they are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and they are coming off a 5-1 win over the Rangers in their last one. This is also a big game for them since they can still catch the Maple Leafs at the top of the division so look for the Lightning to take advantage of them on this back-to-back. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Maple Leafs Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, April 9, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 3 Leafs 1.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 150-106 (-15.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 83-70 (-7.3 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 138-98 (-10.2 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 13-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 5.5.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 80-43 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 34-21 (+8 units) on the moneyline after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game. 20-9 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline after a blowout win by 4 goals or more. 17-9 OVER after a blowout win by 4 goals or more.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  D. Kampf (C) Day To Day - Upper Body. J. McCabe (D) Day To Day - Undisclosed. M. Pacioretty (LW) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  None.

“Staying in games, tight games where it’s tight checking. Not opening it up, not forcing things and getting frustrated and then taking it over in the third period. That’s the biggest thing I can tell you about what I like right now.” - Craig Berube after his team’s win against the Blue Jackets in their game on Saturday.

"Every year you seem to marvel at something and that's just another amazing stat in what is probably going to be a Hall of Fame career. Just don't take him for granted because he's a special, special player." - Jon Cooper after his team’s win against the Rangers in their game on Monday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Morgan Rielly

RD Brandon Carlo

G Joseph Woll

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Victor Hedman

RD Janis Jérôme Moser

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: M. Marner (94)

Goals: W. Nylander (44)

Assists: M. Marner (70)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.26)

Points: N. Kucherov (115)

Goals: B. Point (41)

Assists: N. Kucherov (81)

GAA: A. Vasilevskiy (2.14)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (13th season)