by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Venue: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
Where to Watch: CBS Sports
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Toledo -9.5, BGSU +9.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Toledo -9.5, BGSU +9.5; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Toledo -9.5, BGSU +9.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
Toledo Rockets: 4-5 (5th place, MAC West)
Bowling Green Falcons: 3-6 (6th place, MAC East)
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Toledo Rockets vs Bowling Green Falcons Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Toledo Rockets: lost at home on Nov. 2 against the Eastern Michigan Eagles 52-49.
Bowling Green Falcons: won on the road on Oct. 30 against the Buffalo Bulls 56-44.
Toledo Rockets Analysis
Toledo is coming into this game with a 4-5 record overall and they are 2-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 6th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 2-3 in their conference games this season. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game against EMU. DeQuan Finn played pretty well in that game, other than a few mistakes, as he completed 30/45 passes for 461 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Bryant Koback had a massive day on the ground in that one as he led the team in rushing with 180 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries. Micah Kelly also ran in 1 TD on the ground in that one. Matt Landers also had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 150 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions while Devin Maddox had 71 yards on 5 receptions. Jerjuan Newton caught the other TD pass in that one. Maxen Hook led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Desjaun Johnson and Jamal Hines both led the defense in sacks in that game with 1.5 each while Justin Clark came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 277 points in their 9 games this season averaging 30.8 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 198 points against them allowing 22 PPG. Their offense is averaging 411.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 344.9 YPG.
Bowling Green Falcons Analysis
BGSU is coming into this game with a 3-6 record overall and they are 1-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 6th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 1-4 in their conference games this season. They are coming into this game off of a win in their last game against Buffalo which snapped a 4 game losing streak that they were on prior to that game. Matt McDonald played a great game in that one as he completed 13/19 passes for 263 yards and 4 touchdowns. Terion Stewart had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 170 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 carries while McDonald also ran in 1 TD himself. Tyrone Broden had a nice day as he led the receivers with 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 receptions while Christian Sims was right behind with 103 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions. Brock Horne led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Anthony Hawkins, Karl Brooks, Dontrez Brown, Jordan Porter, and Walter Haire all led the defense in sacks in that game with 1 each while Devin Taylor and Jordan Anderson came away with the only interceptions for them in that one with 1 each. They have scored 212 points in their 9 games this season averaging 23.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 275 points against them allowing 30.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 335.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 375.2 YPG.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction
BGSU is coming into this game as a 9.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. BGSU played really well in their last game winning against Buffalo and every time the Bulls tried to come back in that game, BGSU just kept adding on to the score. They have had an extra week to prepare for this game as well. Toledo is coming off of a bad loss in their last game and they did not play well in that one, they have not really played well in their last few games now. BGSU has been getting better each week and they will play hard in this game looking for a strong finish to their season. The best bet to place in this game is BGSU to cover the spread here.
Toledo Bowling Green Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Wednesday, November 10, 2021 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Toledo 27 BGSU 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Toledo Rockets: 21-27 O/U as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 14-26 O/U as a road favorite. 45-60 O/U in road games. 70-75 O/U against conference opponents.
Bowling Green Falcons: 18-21 O/U as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 91-113 O/U in all games. 34-39 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 56-62 O/U as an underdog. 37-50 O/U in home games. 62-77 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Toledo Rockets: B. Mitchell (WR) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Bowling Green Falcons: T. Raymore (RB) out for season - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
“We’re in a unique situation. We’re No. 1 in the league in yards per play and dead last in number of plays run. I haven’t been in that situation before. That means that every play matters, especially in the red zone and third down. Those plays become heightened, and when you don’t have a lot of success in those situations, there becomes more pressure and anxiety.” - Jason Candle on his team this season.
“So, we’re ready to make a change. It’s tough but at the same time football players, when you have a bad play, you’ve got to forget that play before the next play. The next play is more important than the last. That’s how we have to look at things.” - Jordan Murphy on turning the tide in their program moving forward.
Starting Lineups
Toledo Rockets
WR McKinley-Lewis, Danzel
WR Winstead, Isaiah
WR Maddox, Devin
TE Rosi, Drew
QB Finn, Dequan
RB Koback, Bryant
Bowling Green Falcons
WR Broden, Tyrone
WR Osborne, Austin
TE Sims, Christian
TE Bench, Andrew
QB McDonald, Matt
RB Stewart, Terion
Statistical Leaders
Toledo Rockets
Passing: D. Finn (1185)
Rushing: B. Koback (822)
Receiving: D. Maddox (478)
Touchdowns: B. Koback (7)
Bowling Green Falcons
Passing: M. McDonald (2127)
Rushing: T. Stewart (282)
Receiving: T. Broden (543)
Touchdowns: T. Broden (5)
Coaches:
Toledo Rockets: Jason Candle (7th season)
Bowling Green Falcons: Scot Loeffler (3rd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
