by Will Rogers
Sunday, Mar 16, 2025Doesn’t it seem like the individual battle for the NBA MVP Award has been a two-person deal since the opening day of the season?
Three-time (2021, 2022, 2024) winner Nikola Jokic has been battling Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tooth and nail. When Gilgeous-Alexander seems to have the trophy in his back pocket, Jokic does the impossible – putting together the league’s first-ever 30-20-20 triple double. The head-shaker of a game on March 8 was his 29th triple-double of the year and tied his own team record. The SGA, because he’s SGA, follows that with his own dominant performance, carrying the Thunder on his back in a road win in Boston with 34 points that made him one of only four player in league history with at least 20 points in 60 straight games.
So where do things stand now in the MVP race with just a few weeks left in the regular season?
THE ODDS – Jokic opened the season as a modest favorite, +380 to SGA’s +550. But OKC’s white-hot start and Denver’s sluggish play early were major factors in flipping those numbers. Oddsmakers now like Gilgeous-Alexander’s chances at -700, while Jokic at +450 still has some heavy lifting to do.
WHEN IN DOUBT – Oklahoma City made it known early that it is the best team in the Western Conference, and the Give It to the Best Player on the best team would apply here. And with nine wins in their last 10 games, the Thunder are showing zero interest in resting for the playoffs. The attention they get as the No. 1 seed with possibly the best record in the league gives SGA a boost. With a thinner roster that has little depth, Denver (5-5 in its last 10) is showing signs of fatigue.
WHERE WOULD THEY BEWITHOUT? – Huge advantage to Jokic, who is clearly far more indispensable. With Jokic, the Nuggets’ offense would evaporate and Denver would most likely be a Lottery team talking about drafting the “best player available.” With him they can scour the earth for depth pieces and players who can fit in with him. OKC, OTOH, might not be dominant without Gilgeous-Alexander but would probably be in the mix for home advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs. Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins are under-the-radar stars, a healthy Chet Holmgren is finally showing his talent, and Isaiah Hartenstein has solved a Big Man Void that has cost OKC in recent years.
THEY BOTH PLAY – Neither Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jokic has shown the slightest interest in playing the Load Management game. SGA played in 64 of his team’s 67 games, and Jokic has been almost as durable – missing only 7 of the Nuggets' 68 games. Both could afford to sit over several games down the stretch and still play in the league-mandated minimum of 65 games to qualify for the award.
JOKIC FATIGUE FACTOR – Jokic, the defending MVP, has won the award three times in the last four years. There may sentiment to vote for “somebody else,” especially since SGA finished second in the voting last season and has been dominant. But Jokic backers will point out that the Serbian’s numbers (scoring, assists, free throws and minutes) are all GREATER than in the years that he won the award.
BOTTOM LINE – Expect a new MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 season has just been too steady, too overwhelming and too dominant to overlook. Four times this season he scored 50 or more points in a game, numbers that are Chamberlain-like. He will lead the league in scoring average, and barring a late-season injury will have more points than anyone else. He has the most 20-point games, the most 30-point games, the most 40-point games and the most 50-point games.
Three-time (2021, 2022, 2024) winner Nikola Jokic has been battling Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tooth and nail. When Gilgeous-Alexander seems to have the trophy in his back pocket, Jokic does the impossible – putting together the league’s first-ever 30-20-20 triple double. The head-shaker of a game on March 8 was his 29th triple-double of the year and tied his own team record. The SGA, because he’s SGA, follows that with his own dominant performance, carrying the Thunder on his back in a road win in Boston with 34 points that made him one of only four player in league history with at least 20 points in 60 straight games.
So where do things stand now in the MVP race with just a few weeks left in the regular season?
THE ODDS – Jokic opened the season as a modest favorite, +380 to SGA’s +550. But OKC’s white-hot start and Denver’s sluggish play early were major factors in flipping those numbers. Oddsmakers now like Gilgeous-Alexander’s chances at -700, while Jokic at +450 still has some heavy lifting to do.
WHEN IN DOUBT – Oklahoma City made it known early that it is the best team in the Western Conference, and the Give It to the Best Player on the best team would apply here. And with nine wins in their last 10 games, the Thunder are showing zero interest in resting for the playoffs. The attention they get as the No. 1 seed with possibly the best record in the league gives SGA a boost. With a thinner roster that has little depth, Denver (5-5 in its last 10) is showing signs of fatigue.
WHERE WOULD THEY BEWITHOUT? – Huge advantage to Jokic, who is clearly far more indispensable. With Jokic, the Nuggets’ offense would evaporate and Denver would most likely be a Lottery team talking about drafting the “best player available.” With him they can scour the earth for depth pieces and players who can fit in with him. OKC, OTOH, might not be dominant without Gilgeous-Alexander but would probably be in the mix for home advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs. Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins are under-the-radar stars, a healthy Chet Holmgren is finally showing his talent, and Isaiah Hartenstein has solved a Big Man Void that has cost OKC in recent years.
THEY BOTH PLAY – Neither Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jokic has shown the slightest interest in playing the Load Management game. SGA played in 64 of his team’s 67 games, and Jokic has been almost as durable – missing only 7 of the Nuggets' 68 games. Both could afford to sit over several games down the stretch and still play in the league-mandated minimum of 65 games to qualify for the award.
JOKIC FATIGUE FACTOR – Jokic, the defending MVP, has won the award three times in the last four years. There may sentiment to vote for “somebody else,” especially since SGA finished second in the voting last season and has been dominant. But Jokic backers will point out that the Serbian’s numbers (scoring, assists, free throws and minutes) are all GREATER than in the years that he won the award.
BOTTOM LINE – Expect a new MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 season has just been too steady, too overwhelming and too dominant to overlook. Four times this season he scored 50 or more points in a game, numbers that are Chamberlain-like. He will lead the league in scoring average, and barring a late-season injury will have more points than anyone else. He has the most 20-point games, the most 30-point games, the most 40-point games and the most 50-point games.
