by Hollywood Sports
Friday, May 31, 2024 aAfter dominating the Timberwolves in crunch time in the first three games in the Western Conference Finals, Dallas looked poised to pull out another one on Tuesday and complete the four-game sweep when Luka Doncic got fouled while converting a long three-pointer late in that game. But Doncic missed the free throw and the T-Wolves pulled out the victory to make it a 3-1 series.
Credit Minnesota for making some defensive adjustments and finally playing better in the clutch — but perhaps being down 0-3 in the series took away the pressure that had been impacting them. They had only scored 20 combined points in the final five minutes in the first three games of this series — but they put up 27 points in the fourth quarter in Game Four to preserve the five-point lead they had after the third quarter.
The Mavericks only shot 42.0% from the field in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They made only 14 of 40 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they missed 12 of their 17 open 3-point attempts. But it was my expectation that Dallas would shoot better in Game Five. I thought they would also play better defense after allowing the Timberwolves to make 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 12 games. The Mavericks allowed Minnesota to make 50.6% of their shots in Game Two — but they had covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, Dallas had covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. They had demonstrated their resilience by covering the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they had covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have still won seven of their last nine games — and they had covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They had covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Dallas was going back on the road for Game Five where they had covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home.
Minnesota played their best defensive game in this series by holding the Mavs to 42.0% shooting in Game Four. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 22 games by making 52.7% of their shots. Karl-Anthony Towns played his best game in the series — by far — by scoring 25 points on 9 of 13 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc including three in the fourth quarter. Towns had struggled in clutch time — and he had been inconsistent when playing at home in these playoffs. In his last five playoff games at home since the second round, Towns was scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game on 32.3% shooting and just a 29.6% clip from behind the arc.
The Timberwolves had failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. They return home where they had failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored by up to six points — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
Minnesota did not experience more difficulties in clutch time in Game Five — but it was not for the reasons they wanted. Dallas raced out to a 35-19 lead at the end of the first quarter and went into halftime with a 69-40 edge. The Mavericks got their lead up to 36 points in the third quarter before cruising to a 124-103 victory to end the series in five games.
Looking back on the Timberwolves season, they deserve credit for dethroning the defending NBA champions — and beating the Nuggets in Denver in a seventh game was impressive. General manager Tim Connelly did a great job in assembling a roster that frustrated the potent Denver offense when playing on the defensive end of the court. After losing to the Nuggets in five games in the postseason last year, Minnesota split their four regular-season games against them and went into the Western Conference Semifinals confident that they could beat the reigning champions.
But the collection of players lacked defenders who could effectively so slow down Luka Doncic (albeit, a difficult task). Yet it was not their defense that let them down in Games One through Three. Anthony Edwards got outplayed by Doncic in those games. Perhaps Kyrie Irving made the difference for Dallas in crunch time. The biggest need this T-Wolves team needs is a reliable scorer to complement Edwards. Towns scored 28 points — but he missed five of his six shots from behind the arc including his first four which helped the Mavericks seize their insurmountable lead before he managed to score some empty calorie points with his team out of the game. His continued inconsistency and tendency to disappear in key moments may reduce him to a third option rather than a reliable number-two scorer.
For Minnesota to take the next step and advance to the NBA Finals, Connelly needs to address this scoring need.
Best of luck — Frank.
Credit Minnesota for making some defensive adjustments and finally playing better in the clutch — but perhaps being down 0-3 in the series took away the pressure that had been impacting them. They had only scored 20 combined points in the final five minutes in the first three games of this series — but they put up 27 points in the fourth quarter in Game Four to preserve the five-point lead they had after the third quarter.
The Mavericks only shot 42.0% from the field in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They made only 14 of 40 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they missed 12 of their 17 open 3-point attempts. But it was my expectation that Dallas would shoot better in Game Five. I thought they would also play better defense after allowing the Timberwolves to make 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 12 games. The Mavericks allowed Minnesota to make 50.6% of their shots in Game Two — but they had covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, Dallas had covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. They had demonstrated their resilience by covering the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they had covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have still won seven of their last nine games — and they had covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They had covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Dallas was going back on the road for Game Five where they had covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home.
Minnesota played their best defensive game in this series by holding the Mavs to 42.0% shooting in Game Four. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 22 games by making 52.7% of their shots. Karl-Anthony Towns played his best game in the series — by far — by scoring 25 points on 9 of 13 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc including three in the fourth quarter. Towns had struggled in clutch time — and he had been inconsistent when playing at home in these playoffs. In his last five playoff games at home since the second round, Towns was scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game on 32.3% shooting and just a 29.6% clip from behind the arc.
The Timberwolves had failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. They return home where they had failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored by up to six points — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
Minnesota did not experience more difficulties in clutch time in Game Five — but it was not for the reasons they wanted. Dallas raced out to a 35-19 lead at the end of the first quarter and went into halftime with a 69-40 edge. The Mavericks got their lead up to 36 points in the third quarter before cruising to a 124-103 victory to end the series in five games.
Looking back on the Timberwolves season, they deserve credit for dethroning the defending NBA champions — and beating the Nuggets in Denver in a seventh game was impressive. General manager Tim Connelly did a great job in assembling a roster that frustrated the potent Denver offense when playing on the defensive end of the court. After losing to the Nuggets in five games in the postseason last year, Minnesota split their four regular-season games against them and went into the Western Conference Semifinals confident that they could beat the reigning champions.
But the collection of players lacked defenders who could effectively so slow down Luka Doncic (albeit, a difficult task). Yet it was not their defense that let them down in Games One through Three. Anthony Edwards got outplayed by Doncic in those games. Perhaps Kyrie Irving made the difference for Dallas in crunch time. The biggest need this T-Wolves team needs is a reliable scorer to complement Edwards. Towns scored 28 points — but he missed five of his six shots from behind the arc including his first four which helped the Mavericks seize their insurmountable lead before he managed to score some empty calorie points with his team out of the game. His continued inconsistency and tendency to disappear in key moments may reduce him to a third option rather than a reliable number-two scorer.
For Minnesota to take the next step and advance to the NBA Finals, Connelly needs to address this scoring need.
Best of luck — Frank.
